China-Japan ties are likely to see a prolonged chill after newly minted Japanese Prime Minister (PM), Sanae Takaichi, described a Taiwan Strait conflict as a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. Beijing seized on the remark to push its narrative and signal regional dominance, even pressing Washington to toe its line. But the real story lies beyond the rhetoric. Japan is increasing defence spending and strengthening military posture, while US policy towards China remains competitive, even on the issue of Taiwan.

In order to grasp the evolution of the recent spat, it is first important to understand the context around Takaichi’s remarks. First, under Japan’s security legislation, declaring a situation “survival-threatening” legally allows the government to activate collective self-defence. The current controversy stems from Takaichi’s comments around a hypothetical scenario of a blockade of Taiwan. She said that if American forces were to attempt to break the blockade, Japan could use force to work with them. In other words, she was not talking about Japan independently deploying forces or waging war over Taiwan. Second, Takaichi is not the first leader to articulate such a position. In 2021, then-deputy PM Taro Aso made a similar comment at a fundraising event in Tokyo. The same year, PM Shinzo Abe declared that a Taiwan contingency would be a Japan contingency.

The Chinese response to this........

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