“DO rich people know that climate change will end their ski trips? Have we emphasised that?”
This was just one tongue-in-cheek online comment about COP28, which is underway in Dubai for another week.
It underlines how some people feel this climate conference is a last-ditch effort to stop stewing ourselves in our own pollution, and for humanity to ‘get it’.
It is also a dig at the fact that, globally, 10% of the population with the highest income accounted for nearly half (48%) of planet heating emissions. The carbon footprint of ski trips adds up.
It is forecasted to be a toasty 27 degrees Celsius today for the COP28 delegates in Dubai. Over two weeks, 70,000 delegates from all over the world are travelling to the desert to persuade, beseech and cajole international governments to agree (again) on ways to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, help vulnerable communities adapt to the effects of climate change, and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
Sometimes, I feel I am like a broken record yakking on about the climate crisis again, but I’m in good company. The UN Environmental Programme published a report ahead of COP28 called Broken Record, detailing the broken temperature records (2023 is the hottest year on record) and the record greenhouse gas emissions which continue to rise, despite all the promises and pledges made at previous climate conferences.
The report outlines the gap between what countries have promised to do and what they are doing. None of the G20 countries, which collectively produce 80% of CO2, are reducing emissions at a pace consistent with their net zero targets.
COP28 is crucial because governments need to ratchet up their commitments to reduce emissions faster, and to actually follow through on their promises.
“Like putting Dracula in charge of the blood banks.”
To reach an agreement with hundreds of countries, COP28 required a leader who embodies the principles of climate justice, someone unswerving in his dedication to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Instead, we got the actual CEO of an actual oil company. If it were a plot point in a Bond movie, you’d be rolling your eyes and fast forwarding to the chase scenes.
COP28 leader Sultan Al-Jaber, has said, as a fossil fuel insider, he is best placed to negotiate with the industry and lead the international community toward a sustainable future.
I find it hard to believe that anyone who caused the crisis and continues to profit from the crisis is going to be the one to lead us out of the crisis.
The simple fact is, countries and companies that own oil and gas fields want to keep selling oil and gas to make more money. Even though their core product is making the planet we all live on unliveable, they do not want to shut up shop.
We are going to need a certain amount of fossil fuels to help us get to a fossil-free future run on renewable energy, but we need to phase out fossil fuels and then fossil fuel companies must cease to be. If they are sticking their fingers in their ears, not wanting to hear that business as usual cannot continue forever, we will continue to have ineffectual climate talks. And we will continue to have protesters throwing paint at art and snooker tables to just stop oil.
Last week, journalists revealed that the United Arab Emirates intended to use COP as an opportunity to discuss new oil deals with other countries. And then came the shocker over the weekend of Al-Jaber’s lack of scientific understanding of the core issue.
The COP28 president said there is ‘no science’ behind the demand for phase-out of fossil fuels. The International Energy Agency wrote in 2012 that two-thirds of proven fossil fuel reserves must not be burned, and again warned in 2021 that no new fossil fuel development could take place if the world was to stay within 1.5C.
Loss and Damage
It has long been understood that the countries and people who are likely to be most affected by the extreme weather of climate change are those least equipped and resourced to protect themselves and adapt.
Recovering or rebuilding from the apocalyptic floods of Pakistan or Libya requires serious finance, but for decades rich countries were unwilling to foot the bill (despite being the source of the bulk of emissions).
Last year, at COP27 in Egypt, a loss and damage fund was agreed in principle and after a year of negotiating on the first day of COP28 this year, 198 nations ratified the framework of the loss and damage fund.
The EU agreed to put $245m into the pot, the U.S pledged $17.5m, Ireland pledged €25 million, but critics said that money was already ringfenced for climate action and was not additional money.
So far, the new fund is voluntary with no clear obligation to pay, no specific targets on the amount of finance required, and no obvious way of funding it.
It is a work in progress, but developing countries will need an estimated $200-$250 billion every year by 2030 to adapt to climate change.
Where could humanity find vast amounts of money to compensate for the damage caused by fossil fuel pollution? Well, the oil and gas sector did make $4 trillion in profits last year. Just saying.
So, with Al-Jaber at the helm, it remains to be seen what kind of planetary protecting pledges we will see in the final Dubai agreement.
Will 2023 be the year we cop on or cop out?
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