With the two major parties matched pretty evenly, it’s not too surprising that margin of control in the House and Senate (at present three seats in the House and just one in the Senate) make them very vulnerable to a change of ownership in November. The close nature of five out of the 21st century’s six presidential elections, along with a rare rematch between the last two winners, makes predictions in the 2024 presidential contest problematic as well, even before you get to factors like Donald Trump’s civil and criminal trials, his and Joe Biden’s advanced age, and the possibility of another contested outcome.
But we could be on the threshold of a truly historic shuffle in the power arrangements in Washington. If you had to bet on what will happen this year, the odds favor a Republican takeover of the Senate and a Democratic takeover of the House, as the Washington Post suggested recently:
The House majority, with Republicans clinging to a margin of just a few seats, will most likely get determined by a couple dozen seats in blue-leaning states like New York, New Jersey and California where President Biden will win by comfortable margins, with little effort by ex-president Donald Trump’s team to compete there.
In the Senate, where Democrats cling to an equally perilous 51-49 edge, the majority is almost certain to be determined in three deep-red states — Montana, Ohio and West Virginia — where Trump will likely romp to victory.
These fault lines have offered Democrats much more room for offense in House races and Republicans bigger opportunities for gains in the Senate, which could produce a truly confounding, unprecedented outcome.
Never in the history of the Democratic-Republican duopoly dating back to the last election prior to the Civil War have both the House and Senate flipped in opposite directions. Typically the tides that pull once chamber pull both. But in recent years a new geographical concentration of the parties has given Republicans a big Senate advantage in some cycles that resists national trends. For example, in 2018, a very good Democratic year in U.S. House (a gain of 41 seats), gubernatorial (a gain of 7 governorships) and state legislative (a gain of seven chambers) contests, the GOP registered a net gain of two Senate seats. The 2024 Senate landscape offers Republicans multiple avenues for picking up the two seats they need (or just one seat if they win the tie-breaking vice presidency) to regain control after losing it in 2020.
A double-flip of House and Senate would ensure continued divided control of the federal government and, given the currently extreme polarization of the parties, very likely additional gridlock. There’s a chance of something even more remarkable happening in November, however: a triple flip of House, Senate and the White House, leaving no stone unturned. That has actually happened once in American history: in 1952, when the New Deal era emphatically ended with Dwight D. Eisenhower breaking a 20-year Democratic winning streak in presidential elections, while Republicans also flipped both chambers of Congress (which Democrats had narrowly maintained control of in 1950 despite losing a lot of seats).
So the previous triple flip was a trifecta for the new president’s party (which didn’t last long since Democrats regained control of both chambers of Congress in 1954, a majority which they held until 1980 in the Senate and 1994 in the House). The one in 2024, if it happens, would leave Democrats with control of the House, and while a new Trump administration would likely be in a position to get all its appointees confirmed by a GOP Senate, Republicans would struggle to get legislation through the House without negotiations and concessions.
If the current odds are wrong, other power configurations are possible, including a restoration of the Democratic trifecta of 2021-23 or the Republican trifecta of 2017-19. If either of those scenarios comes to pass, Washington will likely revisit the experience of seeing huge batches of consequential legislation move towards congressional passage via budget reconciliation bills that bypass Senate filibusters — or possibly the abolition of the Senate filibuster altogether if either party can enforce enough discipline in that chamber to change the rules for good.
Overall, though, more divided government in 2025 seems likelier than not, albeit perhaps with different leaders at the helm of the Senate, the House, and — gasp — the White House. This last change of management, of course, could make the others not matter very much.
By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice and to receive email correspondence from us.
The Senate, House, and White House Could All Change Hands in November
5
0
08.04.2024
With the two major parties matched pretty evenly, it’s not too surprising that margin of control in the House and Senate (at present three seats in the House and just one in the Senate) make them very vulnerable to a change of ownership in November. The close nature of five out of the 21st century’s six presidential elections, along with a rare rematch between the last two winners, makes predictions in the 2024 presidential contest problematic as well, even before you get to factors like Donald Trump’s civil and criminal trials, his and Joe Biden’s advanced age, and the possibility of another contested outcome.
But we could be on the threshold of a truly historic shuffle in the power arrangements in Washington. If you had to bet on what will happen this year, the odds favor a Republican takeover of the Senate and a Democratic takeover of the House, as the Washington Post suggested recently:
The House majority, with Republicans clinging to a margin of just a few seats, will most likely get determined by a couple dozen seats in blue-leaning states like New York, New Jersey and California where President Biden will win........
© Daily Intelligencer
visit website
login
who are we?
contact us
qosheapp
Toi Staff
Gideon Levy
Belen Fernandez
Andrew Mitrovica
Mort Laitner
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Rami G Khouri
Nikkei Editorial
