Tehran believes the Strait of Hormuz is its strongest weapon in the war. But Washington is steadily raising the price Iran must pay to use it.

Iran has long understood the strategic value of the Strait of Hormuz. What Tehran appears to believe now is that the narrow waterway can do more than disrupt global energy markets: it can become the regime’s ultimate instrument of survival.

That is a dangerous gamble-and one that President Donald Trump is making increasingly costly.

Iran claims it struck two American vessels and eight oil tankers in the Gulf this week. The United States has rejected Tehran’s claim that Iranian forces hit American warships, while separate reports of merchant vessels being attacked have not independently confirmed Iran’s account of the tankers.

But regardless of the precise scale of the attacks, the broader strategic picture is becoming difficult to ignore. The latest incidents followed the US destruction of five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday. US Central Command has counted 10 Iranian tankers destroyed in a week, following Iranian missile launches against an American warship.

The message from Washington is increasingly clear: If Iran wants to turn commercial shipping into a weapon, the United States can target the machinery that allows Tehran to profit from the very oil trade it is trying to protect.

The market is already feeling the consequences.

Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel on September 9 for the first time since late July. After 194 days of war, Brent has closed above $100 on only around 40 trading days, with most of those concentrated between mid-March and late May. Since May 22, the benchmark had closed above $100 only once before the latest surge, on July 23, before retreating below the threshold the following day.

For much of July and August, markets appeared to have adapted to a largely closed or severely disrupted Hormuz. Brent remained broadly within the $70-to-$95........

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