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Chandigarh: The Indian Navy will no doubt be jubilant that nearly three decades after it set in motion the concept that led to Project 75(I), and some 19 years after the programme was formally launched to build six diesel-electric submarines (SSKs) with air-independent propulsion (AIP) and land-attack capability, it may finally see the first of these boats commissioned seven to eight years from now, around 2033–34.

This follows Thursday’s approval by the Union finance ministry for the long-delayed Rs 70,000-crore P-75I programme involving Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited and Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, paving the way for final project clearance by the Prime Minister-headed Cabinet Committee on Security.

Thereafter, if all proceeds according to schedule – always a dangerous assumption in India’s byzantine defence procurement system – the final P-75I contract could be signed within the current financial year, ending March 2027. Following this, the first Type 214 SSK is likely to be commissioned seven years later, with the sixth and final submarine entering service by 2038–39, some three decades after the Navy commenced planning such a programme in the late 1990s.

“Few military modernisation programmes capture the dysfunction of India’s materiel procurement system more vividly than P-75I,” said a two-star naval veteran who was involved in prolonged negotiations on the submarine tender during his service years. Requesting anonymity for fear of repercussions, he added that by the time the first Mazagon– Thyssenkrupp-built submarine enters service, an entire generation – perhaps even a generation and a half – of officers will already have retired awaiting its delivery.

Alongside this, the regional maritime balance is likely to tilt further in favour of adversaries that are rapidly modernising their undersea forces, while the Indian Navy’s present-generation SSK capability risks obsolescence amid accelerating advances in submarine warfare technologies. China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy, for instance, is expected to induct dozens more conventional and nuclear-powered submarines by the mid-2030s, extending its reach deeper into the Indian Ocean Region, while its ally Pakistan will continue upgrading its own underwater fleet.

Furthermore, the stark reality of the Navy’s SSK operational crisis is neither new nor unforeseen.

It presently operates around 16–17 SSKs, including six recently commissioned French-origin Kalvari (Scorpene)-class boats, around seven remaining Russian-origin Kilo-class submarines and four German-origin HDW Type-209s. However, most of these – excluding the Kalvari-class platforms – are between 30 and 40 years old, sustained through repeated refits and upgrades that increasingly resemble........

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