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Government of India, through its agency Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has released the data for Quarterly Estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the First Quarter of 2026-27, that is for the period April to June of 2026. It shows a high growth rate of 7.8% compared to 6.9% in Q1 of previous year, 2025-26. This is surprising since Q1 of 2026-27 contained the months April and May when the economy was impacted by the West Asia crisis which led to a drastic reduction in availability of crude oil and gas from that area. Pre-war 20% of the world supplies came from there and of that India was a major recipient.

So, the government has claimed a resounding success for its economic management. The prime minister immediately said “doomsayers were doomed and India bloomed yet again”. Indeed so if the data is correct.

The government curtailed supply of gas to some industries and consumers in the unorganised sector had to pay a black price for the gas they used at home. This black price paid by workers is not reflected in the consumer price index. Their budget was completely disrupted and there were protests in various parts of the country.

Many hotels and restaurants closed and the price of food at those eateries that functioned increased substantially. This should have reflected in prices and output.

A lot of fertiliser,........

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