REUTERS — US President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran will soon have a missile that can hit the United States is not backed by US intelligence reports and appears to be exaggerated, three sources familiar with the reports tell Reuters, casting doubt on part of Trump’s case for a possible attack on the Islamic Republic.

In his State of the Union address to the US Congress on Tuesday, Trump began making his case to the American public for why he could order strikes against Iran, saying Tehran was “working on missiles that will soon reach” the United States.

But there have been no changes, two sources said, to an unclassified 2025 US Defense Intelligence Agency assessment that Iran could take until 2035 to develop a “militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile” (ICBM) from its existing satellite-lofting space-launch vehicles (SLV).

One source said that even if China or North Korea, which closely cooperate with Iran, provided technological assistance, Iran would probably take up to eight years at the earliest to produce “something that is actually ICBM level and operational.”

The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence, said they were unaware of any US intelligence assessments that Iran was developing a missile that could soon range the US homeland, but did not rule out the possibility of a new intelligence report they were unaware of.

David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector, and other experts noted that Israeli airstrikes last year and in 2024 had badly damaged key facilities where Tehran produces liquid- and solid-fuel ballistic missiles.

“President Trump is absolutely right to highlight the grave concern posed by Iran — a country that chants ‘death to America,’ — possessing intercontinental ballistic missiles,” said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly.

The New York Times first reported that US intelligence agencies believe Iran is probably years away from having missiles that can hit the United States.

Trump’s claim about Iran’s missile capability came as representatives from the US and Iran negotiate over Tehran’s nuclear program, with mediators projecting optimism but few signs of a breakthrough that could avert potential strikes amid a massive US military buildup in the region.

The US president has done little to explain publicly why he might be leading the country into its most aggressive action against the Islamic Republic since its 1979 revolution. Iran has threatened to retaliate with strikes on Israel and US targets in the region.

In his address on Tuesday, Trump pointed to Tehran’s support for proxy terror groups, its killing of protesters in a crackdown on anti-regime demonstrations that, rights groups say, killed thousands, and the country’s missile and nuclear programs as threats to the region and the United States.

Without providing evidence, Trump said that Tehran was beginning to rebuild the nuclear program that he claimed had been “obliterated” by US airstrikes last June on three major sites involved with uranium enrichment. Those strikes came at the end of the 12-day Israel-Iran war.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday referred to Iran’s ballistic missile program in less definitive terms than Trump, saying that Tehran is “on a pathway to one day being able to develop weapons that could reach the continental US.”

Iran has consistently denied seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. However, it enriched uranium to levels that have no peaceful application, obstructed international inspectors from checking its nuclear facilities, and expanded its ballistic missile capabilities. Before the war in June, Israel said Iran had taken steps toward weaponization.

In an interview with India Today TV released on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied that Iran was expanding its missile capabilities.

“We are not developing long-range missiles. We have limited range to below 2000 kilometers intentionally,” he said. “We don’t want it to be a global threat. We only have [them] to defend ourselves. Our missiles build deterrence.”

Trump has threatened to attack Iran if it executes people arrested during the anti-regime protests in January, or fails to agree to a deal on its nuclear program in talks with the US.

Iran has the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East, able to strike Israel, U.S. bases in the region, and parts of Europe.”

It has also developed so-called space-launch vehicles that have put satellites into orbit and that experts say could be modified into ICBMs that could loft nuclear warheads.

While SLVs loft satellites, ICBMs release re-entry vehicles that protect warheads from the high temperatures, as well as forces produced by the missiles hurtling down through the Earth’s atmosphere.

But Albright said Iran was a long way from being able to mount a nuclear warhead-carrying re-entry vehicle atop a missile that could survive the extreme heat and forces of plunging through Earth’s atmosphere.

“Iran can launch a very long-range missile because of its space launch program,” said Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and International Security think tank. “But it needs lots of work to develop an adequate RV (re-entry vehicle).”

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report. 

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