Most eyes are glued to the mutual blows in the current war. Some pundits ask how it will end, militarily and regime-wise. But there’s another dimension, what I would call the “outer circle” of the war’s effects. In the long-term, these are just as important as the war’s military outcome.

First and foremost, unless the war ends in some sort of debacle for the U.S. (hard to imagine at this stage), its standing is reinforced as a major power that is willing to put its money where its (leader’s) mouth is. To be sure, President Trump is notorious for his capricious decision-making, but that makes it all the more difficult for America’s opponents to assess whether he would carry out any threats, ensuring that they act with even greater caution.

Where does this play out most clearly? As far away from the Middle East as one could imagine: Taiwan! The main goal of China’s ongoing military buildup is to threaten and possibly invade what it considers to be an integral part of China. What’s America’s interest in getting involved in such a conflict? Nothing short of preventing a disaster for the U.S. economy, as most of the world’s highest quality, advanced AI and graphics microchips, are manufactured in Nvidia’s partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). In case you haven’t heard of Nvidia, it’s the most highly valued company in the entire world: close to $4.5 trillion (yes, trillion dollars). One doesn’t need to be paranoid to understand what a Communist Chinese takeover of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry would mean for the entire American (and western) high-tech economy.

America passed a law back in 1979 – the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) – mandating the supplying of defensive weapons to Taiwan so that it has the capacity to resist any use of force or coercion undermining its national security. Even President Biden repeatedly asserted that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if it were attacked; it’s hard to see President Trump backtracking on such a promise (not only because of the TRA law). Attacking Iran merely strengthens the impression that America’s promise here is not to be sneezed at.

And there’s a more immediate effect: China is covertly receiving from Iran much of the latter’s oil very much under the world’s going price, as part of a long-term $400 billion strategic partnership. Should the current Iranian regime fall (international sanctions eventually being lifted), that would be a significant blow to China’s economy. Indeed, some analysts see Trump’s attack against Iran as the opening salvo of a broad-based, clandestine, strategic, non-shooting war with China (https://www.thefp.com/p/the-iran-strike-is-all-about-china).

Another consequence of the current war is the position of most Arab countries vis-à-vis Iran and Israel. Over the past few years, Saudi Arabia took the lead in trying to “appease” Iran through improved relations, despite the age-old Sunni-Shiite divide. That’s now come crashing down, given Iran’s indiscriminate missile barrage against almost all the Arab countries in its vicinity. Indeed, in this war Iran by itself has attacked more Arab states than has Israel over the previous 78 years since its founding! Thus, the Arab Middle East security pendulum once more will swing in Israel’s favor, the country that’s doing their “dirty work” of removing the Iranian threat.

The Ukraine-Russia war is also feeling the effects, albeit probably less long-term. On the one hand, higher oil prices are providing temporary relief for Russia’s wounded economy. On the other hand, America’s Gulf allies and Israel have a greater need for American air-defense interceptors, which means that fewer will be available for Ukraine’s beleaguered population.

America’s internal anti-war sentiment – led by the president’s own MAGA base – should have a paradoxical effect regarding other Trump-initiated conflicts. If anyone seriously thought that he would really countenance “conquering” Greenland, that’s dead in the water. For if the MAGA crowd is criticizing their leader’s military campaign against a true threat to world peace (Iran), one can just imagine what would happen between them and Trump upon any forceful takeover of Greenland. He already is suffering in the polls, even among his most ardent supporters. They might swallow one more war in going to the aid of a country like Taiwan, given the economic disaster that would ensue for America; anything short of that is not going to fly in MAGA-land.

For Israel’s own strategic interests, the consequences will be mixed – albeit more positive than negative. On the positive side: 1) Of the greatest significance, no more nuclear threat; 2) Seriously weakening the radical Iranian regime means that its main proxies (Hezbollah and Hamas) will not be able to receive much financial backing, if at all; 3) Israel’s repeated military prowess (defensive and especially offensive), will only further supercharge its military export industry (prices on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange actually rose when the war started!). The downside: further loss of political support among the American public, perceiving that Israel “dragged” Trump into this war – a loss not only on the Democratic side where Israel’s position had already declined significantly over the course of the 2023-2025 Gaza War but as noted above, especially among the America-First right-wingers, many of whom used to be Israel’s strongest supporters.

And then there’s the BIG question: will the Iranian regime fall? If it does, that too would be a mixed blessing for Israel. On the one hand (assuming that a non-adversarial Iranian regime takes the Mullahs’ place), over the long-haul Israel could significantly reduce its military burden, with large scale positive consequences for its economy and society. On the other hand, the world’s attention would then be free to focus far more on the Palestinian cause i.e., heavier political pressure being applied to Israel on the issue. And if that includes U.S. pressure – Israel’s “best friend” in need and in deed – any Israeli right-wing or even center-right government would find itself in serious trouble diplomatically and perhaps economically as well (e.g., reduction or cancellation of U.S. military aid).

In sum, for Israel and the United States there is much to be happy about in its current demolition of Iran’s military and government. But as Oscar Wilde once opined: “When the Gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers.” Let’s hope that only the positive prayers are answered for these two “best friends.”

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)