Iran’s direct attack on Israel that is currently unfolding is more than a regional challenge. It will test the resolve of the United States at a time when it is leading a new global strategic orientation; one that the US has led with great skill, and in equal measure, remarkable inconsistency, if not incompetence. Australia is in the thick of it this global alignment, and will rise or fall by its tide.

The US has done an excellent job at reinvigorating alliances across the globe. AUKUS is a bold newcomer, but in the background the US has also significantly strengthened links with South Korea (a standout US achievement), and the Philippines (a complete turn around).

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and US President Joe Biden.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

In Europe, once neutral countries such as Sweden and Finland now accept with gratitude the significant obligations that come with NATO membership, on the basis that the US underwrites the credibility of NATO’s commitment to come to the aid of any member who is attacked.

But alarmingly, three current developments raise the question of whether this polarised global order – of which Australia is a cheerleader – may be little more substantive than the paint on facades of a Potemkin village.

The flaw increasingly seems to be that the US’ absolute belief in its military might is unfettered by a clear calculation of its national interests at stake, or the limitations imposed by domestic support.

This has become characteristic of US engagement. Unequivocal military commitment, followed by hedging and ultimately abandonment when the military adventure is no longer politically sustainable. The US is all in, until it is not. That can be devastating for its allies who cannot simply leave as the US can, and increasingly does.

Ukraine, the West’s favourite cause celebre, is in great danger as a result of Russian aggression and Western encouragement followed by indifference. Now, even under President Joe Biden, US support for Ukraine’s war with Russia is tenuous. And then there is the possibility of a Trump presidency. Ukraine’s military prospects are bleak. Russia has survived and will likely emerge stronger and emboldened.

And then there’s impoverished Yemen. Three months after Australia boldly backed an overwhelming international force to suppress Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, the attacks continue to disrupt global trade.