Is a new bromance about to blossom? That’s the hope in government when Rishi Sunak meets Emmanuel Macron in Paris tomorrow for the first Franco-British summit in five years. Items on the agenda for the talks include defence and security, energy and, of course, small boats. After Sunak came to an agreement with Brussels on the Northern Ireland protocol – known as the Windsor agreement – there is a sense that this is a ‘barnacles off the boat’ moment which will allow a wider reset of relations.
Macron’s words on the issue will be a significant indicator of any wider unhappiness in the EU
Sunak is keen to try a softer approach to diplomacy than his predecessors (with Truss saying she wasn’t sure if Macron was a friend or foe). He believes that by building amicable relations with leaders he’ll deliver better results than picking fights. The area where there is the greatest urgency to show this approach works is on small boats.
As I say in the magazine this week, the big hope is for a deal with Emmanuel Macron. France says it intercepts about half of all small boats that leave its shores. The Home Office believes that if this figure rose to 75 per cent, it would break the business model of the people traffickers, who would be unable to justify their thousands of pounds in fees for a one-in-four success rate. One senior minister goes so far as to suggest an agreement like this with France would be more impactful than the government’s illegal migration bill – which could get stuck in the courts – when it comes to progress on the issue before the election.
Yet there are already noises of discontent from Brussels over the government’s plan to block anyone who enters the country illegally from claiming asylum. Ylva Johansson, the EU commissioner for home affairs, has said she believes the legislation will be in breach of human rights laws. Does this echo a wider unhappiness in the EU? Macron’s words on the issue will be a significant indicator.
While critics of the new legislation predict EU leaders will bristle at the UK’s approach as inhumane, ministers believe they could prove more sympathetic than the commission. The Foreign Secretary James Cleverly has been laying the groundwork with foreign counterparts – and these are problems other countries are grappling with too.