When the Rwanda Bill had its second reading in the House of Commons just before Christmas, there was a revolt on the right of the Tory party. A group of legal experts, with the self-appointed ‘Star Chamber’ title, were convened by Eurosceptic MPs. They declared that Rishi Sunak’s plan was not ‘sufficiently watertight’ to allow deportations to take place, with too many legal loopholes vulnerable to exploitation. They said they would vote against the bill unless changes were made. In the end, Sunak faced down the rebels; only a small number came out against him.
Soon after the vote, the cabinet met. Michael Gove was quick to congratulate the Prime Minister, contrasting the findings of the ‘Star Chamber’ unfavourably with the verdict of Lord Sumption, a former Supreme Court justice, who had argued Sunak’s policy would work. ‘He was effectively making fun of the Tory right,’ says one attendee.
The main Tory goal is simply to see
a flight take off for Rwanda in
order to see an old pledge fulfilled
Kemi Badenoch intervened. According to colleagues, the unimpressed Business Secretary told Gove: ‘The way you talk and think about this issue is wrong,’ she told her colleagues. ‘People are rightly frustrated with a political class that pays lip service to their concerns. They hate that we pretend that we’re bothered but we don’t act.’ The PM commended Badenoch for her intervention; others followed suit on the need to respect valid concerns. Gove, who takes so many notes in cabinet that some colleagues worry he’s collecting memoir material, sat awkwardly. ‘It was brutal,’ says one who was there.
The Safety of Rwanda Bill finally passed the House of Lords this week following a long ping-pong session. So now Sunak must prove that his government can act on voters’ concerns. He’s pledged to get flights taking off in 12 weeks. This would be more than two years after Boris Johnson and the then home secretary Priti Patel unveiled the scheme. Since then, more than 76,000 migrants have arrived on small boats.
Ministers are cautiously optimistic that it will happen this time. Inside the Home Office, it’s thought that about eight weeks will be needed to make the flights operational. How many seats will be filled is another question, given that the law allows for individual appeals. If Sunak faces a European Court of Human Rights ruling to stop him, he has said he is willing to ignore it. But the legal challenge, if it comes, is likely to invoke the 1951 UN Refugee Convention, thereby denying the Tories the clean ‘Britain vs Strasbourg’ battle they would like.
One government figure argues that the delay in the Lords has probably been a ‘blessing in disguise’, as it postpones the operational challenges that could yet see the plan face further criticism. As one grandee put it after the vote: ‘Of course it’s not going to work. We’ll get a few planes over but it’s not going to stop the tide of people trying to escape extreme poverty and danger at home’.
In government, there is some realism on this point. Sunak’s pledge to ‘stop the boats’ has been hard to reconcile with near-record arrivals this year so far. Any Rwanda deterrent would take a while to kick in, so the chances of there being a visible effect by the time of the general election look slim. Sunak can at least point to other countries following his lead: Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission chief, has spoken in support of new migration reforms that would involve deporting people to third countries for asylum processing. Manfred Weber, leader of the EPP group in the European parliament, has said such policies are necessary to thwart populists (who are expected to do well in this year’s Euro elections).
The Home Secretary, who reportedly once called the Rwanda policy ‘batshit’, marked the passing of the bill with a visit to Lampedusa, the Italian island at the centre of Europe’s migrant surge. James Cleverly said he had learned lessons from Italy, which is currently undergoing a third wave of small-boat arrivals. He regards the Rwanda policy as just one tool among many.
The main Tory goal is simply to see a flight take off for Rwanda in order to see an old pledge fulfilled. The plan is to choose the first deportees carefully: those whose appeals have been heard and flat-out rejected. There is concern that with new appeals, individuals will use the time to abscond.
When Sunak ran for leader, he told friends that the Rwanda debacle embodied why Boris Johnson had to go: he had promised a policy he couldn’t deliver. Sunak’s own failure would in turn raise difficult questions about his leadership.
So the timing of all this as well as his commitment to a rise in defence spending to 2.5 per cent by 2030 and his latest benefits crackdown pledge is not coincidental. It is part of a concerted effort to shore up support before next week’s local elections, in which the Tories are expected to lose half the council seats they are defending. ‘It’s all an exercise in surviving the aftermath of 2 May,’ says a Sunak critic. ‘Total la-la land.’ ‘There’s a reasonable chance he will face a leadership challenge,’ says one cabinet member. ‘I think he’d probably survive it – but we’d all be damaged.’
This is one reason Downing Street is in election planning mode. An autumn election was always the most likely option, but going to the polls before the summer has also been discussed. Much media coverage has focused on the date of the election; but those close to Sunak are also thinking about the day they announce it – which would set the tone for the campaign.
No decision has been made. Instead there is a list of dates that are viewed as viable. The final call will be the PM’s alone, and the Rwanda scheme is a factor in this. As one member of the shadow cabinet points out: ‘If I were Rishi, I’d go for the summer and hope for a flight or two before polling day. The risk is they wait until autumn, the numbers are unchanged and [Nigel] Farage can say there is no deterrent effect.’
It’s rare to hear a Tory talk about winning: the most they really hope for is to deny Labour a majority. At the pessimism end of the spectrum are those Tories who wonder whether the party can stay together until polling day. ‘I’m not worried about the general election campaign – we will be able to fight,’ says one veteran. ‘Whether we can make it to the starting line is another matter.’
Politics / Kemi and Gove’s Cabinet clash on Rwanda
16
3
25.04.2024
When the Rwanda Bill had its second reading in the House of Commons just before Christmas, there was a revolt on the right of the Tory party. A group of legal experts, with the self-appointed ‘Star Chamber’ title, were convened by Eurosceptic MPs. They declared that Rishi Sunak’s plan was not ‘sufficiently watertight’ to allow deportations to take place, with too many legal loopholes vulnerable to exploitation. They said they would vote against the bill unless changes were made. In the end, Sunak faced down the rebels; only a small number came out against him.
Soon after the vote, the cabinet met. Michael Gove was quick to congratulate the Prime Minister, contrasting the findings of the ‘Star Chamber’ unfavourably with the verdict of Lord Sumption, a former Supreme Court justice, who had argued Sunak’s policy would work. ‘He was effectively making fun of the Tory right,’ says one attendee.
The main Tory goal is simply to see
a flight take off for Rwanda in
order to see an old pledge fulfilled
Kemi Badenoch intervened. According to colleagues, the unimpressed Business Secretary told Gove: ‘The way you talk and think about this issue is wrong,’ she told her colleagues. ‘People are rightly frustrated with a political class that pays lip service to their concerns. They hate that we pretend that we’re bothered but we don’t act.’ The PM commended Badenoch for her intervention; others followed suit on the need to respect valid concerns. Gove, who takes so many notes in cabinet that some colleagues worry he’s collecting memoir material, sat awkwardly. ‘It was........
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