American and Israeli strikes on Iran could not have come as a surprise to Russia. The Twelve-Day War and subsequent developments made it clear that a new Middle Eastern war was quite possible.

Moreover, the Kremlin clearly does not rule out the possibility of regime change in Iran. Russia’s reaction to the protests in late December and January was quite telling. For more than two weeks, Moscow remained silent about the ongoing unrest. Only when the Islamic Republic brutally suppressed the protests did Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova make a clear statement in support of the Iranian regime. Obviously, that meant Russian officials waited until it became clear that Tehran had secured its survival.

After the setback in Syria, where a long-time Russian-backed ally, Bashar al-Assad, suddenly lost power in 2024, Moscow now clearly acknowledges the possibility that it could lose partners unexpectedly. Moreover, the Syrian case shows a clear pattern: when the collapse of a friendly regime appears realistic, Russia simply steps aside, seeing a need for vital pragmatism.

At the same time, almost any government that might replace the Islamic Republic would not be interested in maintaining a similarly close relationship with Moscow as before. Russia’s image as a world power among Iranians is generally negative due to a long list of historical grievances, including wars with the Russian Empire in the 19th century that resulted in the loss of territory that is now part of present-day Azerbaijan, as well as the Soviet-British occupation of Iran during World War II. Iranians remain quite sensitive to these episodes and often view Russia as a colonial power.

Moreover, anti-Russian sentiment has recently surged again. Iranians increasingly........

© The Moscow Times