These under-the-radar Georgia races could be midterm bellwether

▪ Key primary races in Georgia, Kentucky

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▪ Trump says Iran strikes planned, delayed 

▪ Evidence in Mangione case permitted

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A pair of contests for state Supreme Court in Georgia on Tuesday will serve as key bellwethers as both parties are preparing for major battles in the swing state this fall.

Justices Charlie Bethel and Sarah Warren are both running for reelection for another six-year term in ostensibly nonpartisan races. But the contests have turned into fierce proxy fights between Republicans and Democrats as both parties seek to show their strength ahead of critical Senate and gubernatorial races in November.

Bethel and Warren, both originally appointed to the court by former Gov. Nathan Deal (R), are running against personal injury attorney Miracle Rankin and former Georgia state Sen. Jen Jordan (D), respectively.

State supreme court races in the Peach State have historically been low on drama — no incumbent justice has lost a reelection bid in more than a century. But Rankin and Jordan are trying to change that, as are Democrats who have reportedly spent more than $1 million on campaign ads, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

The race has attracted big-name endorsements, with GOP Gov. Brian Kemp endorsing Bethel and Warren. Former President Obama, former Vice President Kamala Harris and former Attorney General Eric Holder, meanwhile, have thrown their support behind Rankin and Jordan.

There’s no public polling in the race, but Democratic optimism had been stoked by the party outperforming its margins from 2024 in almost every election nationwide over the past year and a half.

Some of those successes include back-to-back wins in hotly contested Wisconsin state Supreme Court races last year and this year. The party has also been able to flip multiple conservative-leaning state legislature seats in areas generally less friendly to the party.

If Rankin and Jordan manage to flip the seats, it could provide more enthusiasm to Democrats as they try to take the governor’s mansion and defend a key U.S. Senate seat in this year’s midterms.

With the popular Kemp term-limited, Democrats see a prime opportunity to win Georgia governor for the first time in nearly 30 years. Several major Democratic and Republican candidates are seeking their parties’ nominations Tuesday.

And Republicans are seeking to go on offense to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in his bid for a second term. As Ossoff is the only incumbent Democrat running for reelection in a state that voted for President Trump in 2024, he’s a key target for the GOP, though early hypothetical polling has shown him leading his potential Republican opponents.

The court races have leaned into a familiar rallying issue for Democrats — abortion — as reproductive rights groups have weighed in to back the challengers. Those in Bethel and Warren’s camps have pushed back, accusing Democrats of injecting partisanship into contests that should be nonpartisan.

The debate escalated just before the primary as a state judicial committee issued statements accusing Rankin and Jordan of violating judicial conduct rules for campaigning together and appearing at reproductive rights events. A federal judge blocked the panel from publicly commenting Monday.

While wins in the races would be a positive sign for Democrats, they would not automatically mean they are favored in the governor and Senate races. Democrats have had the advantage in these relatively lower-turnout elections over the past year, but the electorate could look significantly different in November.

Still, a win for the challengers would rattle Republicans in one of the key midterm battlegrounds.

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