As signals of a ‘massive’ US attack mount, experts skeptical it will break Iran 

As President Trump threatens a major escalation in Iran, signs are mounting that the U.S. military is preparing for a potential return to major military operations. 

But experts are skeptical that an intensified air strike campaign — even if it takes out bridges, water facilities and electricity plants — will break Tehran or force tough concessions at the negotiating table. 

“I don’t think it will change Iran’s calculation in any way, because from Iran’s perspective, this is when they said it publicly, that this is a war of survival for them. So bombing from the air is not going to change Iran’s calculation, even if the U.S. intensifies it,” said Sina Azodi, the director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University.

“The only thing that will happen is that, first of all, the entire region is going to suffer more. The Iranians have made it very clear,” he said, adding, “I think it destroys any chance of diplomacy.” 

President Trump held a Friday afternoon meeting at the White House with his national security team to discuss military options against Iran, a source familiar with the meeting, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters, told The Hill on Friday.

Trump told reporters on Friday that the U.S. is still talking with Iran, but warned the U.S. military is prepared to act if he gives the green light. 

“We’re talking to them. So, you know, maybe there won’t be a tipping point, and maybe there will. We’re ready to go. Look, we’re locked and loaded,” he said. 

Azodi said a better path for the administration would be to go back to the implementation of a revised Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).

“You can’t just do a ceasefire. You need a comprehensive agreement that it’s language is no longer open to interpretation,” he said. “And quite frankly, U.S. has to, when it makes a commitment, it needs to abide by it.” 

A former senior U.S. intelligence official, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, said regardless of how much the U.S. increases the air bombing campaign, without collectively enforcing the naval blockade, securing to some degree the traffic going through the Strait of Hormuz and absorbing some of the international economic cost as a long-term strategy, it will be difficult to see progress. 

“But you’re not going to bomb yourself into a ceasefire; I think you’ve got to be able to put the economic instrument of power just as make it just as significant as what you’re doing military,” the ex-senior intelligence official........

© The Hill