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Data Dive with Nik Nanos: Canadians are feeling pretty good at the moment. Will the optimism survive 2026?

13 0
09.01.2026

Canadians' views on the country have been more upbeat during Mark Carney's time in office, according to polling.Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press

Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, research adjunct professor at the Norman Paterson School for International Affairs at Carleton University, and the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.

With the Justin Trudeau era behind them, Canadians feel better today than they have in quite a while.

Should Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals feel good? Possibly. Should they feel confident? Nope.

Looking at the mood of Canadians, ballot trends and events south of the border, brace yourself: 2026 may feature an early federal election.

Views on the country are decidedly more upbeat now than at the tail end of the Trudeau government. The data suggests we can call this a Carney honeymoon. The big question is whether the optimism will survive 2026.

For the past 19 years, Nanos has conducted the Mood of Canada national survey. So how do Canadians feel about the country under Mr. Carney compared to his predecessors, Mr. Trudeau and Stephen Harper?

Mr. Carney’s most positive comparative score is on the federal-provincial front. The proportion of Canadians who feel the relationship between the federal and provincial governments over the past year has improved hit a 19-year high, with people more than twice as likely to say it has improved/somewhat improved (20 per cent improved, 33 per cent somewhat improved) compared to it having not improved (12 per cent) or somewhat not improved (11 per cent). This is the highest........

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