The recent emotionally charged speech delivered by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Sohail Afridi in the provincial assembly has spotlighted the intensifying frictions in Pakistan’s civil–military relations, portraying military operations in Pashtun regions as part of a longstanding cycle of exploitation. By aligning himself and his party as staunch supporters of Imran Khan and dismissing secretive decisions imposed from above, Afridi issued a stark warning that continued encroachments could ignite outright resistance.

This episode illuminates profound structural fissures in Pakistan’s governance, where the military extends far beyond its role as a guardian of borders to wield ultimate influence over the nation’s direction.

Such dynamics are far from isolated, resonating across other post-colonial nations where armed forces have similarly overstepped into realms of politics, economics, and ideology, often under the guise of preserving unity or stability. Egypt and Myanmar, alongside Pakistan, offer compelling parallels, each shaped by inherited colonial frameworks that bolstered military hierarchies, lingering ambiguities in national identity, and strategic global positions that have insulated their militaries from external accountability.

Yet, the paths these countries have taken over the past two decades diverge significantly, influenced by the interplay of ethnic divisions, population dynamics, and the evolving mechanisms of societal pushback. This exploration delves into the patterns of military ascendancy in these three states, emphasising how insurgent landscapes, ethnic undercurrents, and the bedrock of resistance have moulded their respective fates.

At its core, the narrative reveals that military might, while formidable, encounters varying degrees of sustainability and backlash depending on a society’s ethnic mosaic, youthful energy, and capacity for organised dissent.

Pakistan: Hybrid Control Amid Ethnic and Digital Resistance

Pakistan’s 26th And 27th Amendments And The Civil–Military Push To Curb Judicial Power

In Pakistan, the military’s grip on power has not waned but rather morphed from overt dictatorships to a more nuanced hybrid system. Following eras of direct governance under figures like Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, and Zia-ul-Haq, the period after 2008 introduced a façade of civilian-led democracy, where elections occur, and parliaments convene, yet pivotal choices in defence, diplomacy, and even domestic policy remain firmly in the hands of military headquarters in Rawalpindi.

The real peril emerges from political opposition that harnesses ethnic bonds and democratic mandates, outstripping the immediacy of armed threats

The dramatic downfall of Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2022, widely viewed as engineered by the establishment, ignited a wave of division and crackdowns on his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, culminating in a profound erosion of trust in the system. The elections of 2024, riddled with claims of rigging, only deepened this scepticism, rendering democratic processes increasingly theatrical.

As the mid-2020s unfolded, legal amendments solidified this imbalance, granting the army chief greater autonomy and shielding top brass from judicial scrutiny, while the military’s economic empire ballooned through vast holdings in property development, transportation, farming, and industry. This created an interlocking web of influence that sustains itself independently of civilian oversight.

Amid this consolidation, resistance has begun to crystallise around ethnic narratives, particularly in Pashtun-dominated areas like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the erstwhile tribal regions, where repeated security campaigns since the early 2000s have led to widespread upheaval, loss of life, and forced relocations. Afridi’s address captures this sentiment, decrying a legacy of undervalued Pashtun sacrifices and signalling a readiness for provincial pushback that could redefine centre–periphery relations.

What sets Pakistan’s insurgent challenges apart is their containment, preventing rebels from establishing lasting footholds. In the rugged expanses of Balochistan, groups like the Baloch Liberation Army and Baloch Liberation Front launch........

© The Friday Times