Pakistan's October 15, 2025, retaliatory precision strikes in Kabul and Kandahar against TTP leadership on Afghan soil created a 'deterrence'. It caused unease bordering on panic among the Afghan Taliban. Therefore, after the November 11 suicide attack outside the Islamabad judicial complex, the Taliban quietly reached out to Pakistan, assuring non-involvement, and requested to de-escalate. The second attack on FC HQ in Peshawar on November 24 was owned by Jammat-ul-Ahraar, a TTP splinter group. So, on Qatar's request, Pakistan postponed the planned retaliatory strikes inside Afghanistan.

Other than the cited attacks by 'renegade' elements, there is a noticeable decline in terrorist attacks. Pakistan's air and missile strike demonstrated Islamabad's resolve to chase the TTP/any other group even inside Kabul. This had the desired psychological impact on the Taliban leadership and security apparatus. In earlier incidents, they would dismiss Pakistan's concerns, spinning the blame towards TTP factions. This time, they pleaded behind the scenes after seeing Islamabad's reach, lethality, capacity and unmistakable willingness to hit high-value targets deeper inside Afghanistan.

Pakistan's tough message loudly established deterrence, stipulating, if attacked by Afghan proxies, Islamabad will not "wait for protracted diplomatic exchanges" but "will act [militarily and] immediately". In Islamabad's reckoning, the global environment does not inhibit such retaliation, given that the Kabul regime does not espouse any optimism and international sympathy for its track record on exclusivity, women apartheid and terror-sponsorship. Islamabad's pressure is expected to compel the Afghan Taliban to reassess their........

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