Asia Defense | Security | South Asia

Pakistan’s Military Campaign in Afghanistan Is Here to Stay

Pakistan’s recent strikes signal that it is prepared to take the fight directly to the Taliban leadership’s inner circle if the Taliban regime’s support for anti-Pakistan groups continues.

Pakistan’s ongoing military campaign in Afghanistan, which has now stretched into its fourth week, marks a departure from the sporadic border skirmishes between the two countries that defined Islamabad’s relations with the Afghan Taliban regime since their return to power in August 2021. What apparently began as targeted responses to cross-border attacks that Islamabad alleges emerge from Afghanistan has evolved into a sustained campaign, which appears to be aimed at dismantling the Taliban regime’s capacity to shelter and support anti-Pakistan militant networks.

Islamabad has named the ongoing operation “Ghazab Lil Haq,” which means “Rage for the Righteous Cause.” The operation’s scope, intensity, and stated objectives suggest this is no fleeting retaliation but a new doctrinal baseline for dealing with Kabul as part of Islamabad’s new approach to deal with threats posed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

The ongoing escalation unfolded in stages, and there are reasons to believe that Pakistan’s military campaign may not end anytime soon.

It started when Pakistan conducted airstrikes on TTP and Baloch militant targets on the Afghan side of the border more than three weeks ago. In response, the Afghan Taliban formally announced an offensive against Pakistani positions by framing it as retaliation for those earlier strikes. The Taliban perhaps did not read the mood in Islamabad correctly and calculated that this was just another episode of contained border skirmishes, which they could later celebrate as a victory in the form of another ceasefire.

Islamabad, however, had other plans. It immediately launched its own campaign under Operation Ghazab Lil Haq, which had been in the works for some time. The focus of the operation has been precise. It has targeted arms storage sites, weapons depots, intelligence apparatus, fuel depots, air bases, military headquarters, and other infrastructure that sustains the Taliban regime’s ability to project power and perhaps protect allied groups such as the TTP.

So far, Pakistani forces have relied heavily on the air force for deep strikes. This has been further supplemented by the use of drones and long-range artillery. These standoff capabilities have allowed Islamabad to hit targets across multiple provinces in Afghanistan without committing large ground formations or troops.

The Taliban leadership appears to have been stunned by Pakistan’s response. They are ill-prepared to mount a conventional military response. For instance, the Taliban have attempted to retaliate occasionally by using rudimentary armed drones or by sporadic firing at border posts. These attempts, however, have been met with overwhelming military responses from Pakistan. Clearly, the asymmetry in capability is stark and can be seen from Pakistan’s ability to inflict heavy damage on Taliban military infrastructure. Pakistan has, so far, shown no sign of easing the pace of its attacks or military campaign.

Amid the onslaught, Kabul has signaled a willingness to open dialogue with Pakistan. Moreover, there have been other backchannel efforts, including from China, to start dialogue between the two sides that could lead to another ceasefire. Islamabad, however, appears uninterested in talks at this stage.

Pakistan’s reluctance to enter into dialogue largely stems from its experience with four years of diplomatic efforts that ultimately yielded no results. These efforts failed to get Kabul to change its stance of support for the outlawed TTP and other terrorist groups operating from Afghan soil.

In the past, Pakistan has tried trade incentives, diplomatic backing, direct negotiations, and even mediation involving Qatar, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and China to engage the Afghan Taliban over the issue of the TTP. The goal was to persuade the Taliban to sever ties with the TTP and stop allowing the latter to use Afghan soil as a launchpad.

Instead, more than 4,000 Pakistani soldiers have........

© The Diplomat