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Victor Davis Hanson: A Midterm Elections Update

Editor’s note: This is a lightly edited transcript of today’s video from Daily Signal senior contributor Victor Davis Hanson. Subscribe to our YouTube channel to see more of his videos. 

Hello, this is Victor Davis Hanson for the Daily Signal.

We’re about five weeks from the midterms, and maybe we should have another update. Both sides seem to be increasingly confident, although I think the mood on the Democrats is that they’re about to achieve a historic capture of both the Senate and the House and put an end to [President] Donald Trump’s counterrevolution. 

The Republicans’ [mood] is a little bit more tentative. They feel that very slowly there’s a turnaround, and the momentum may be going their way, but they’re not sure they have enough time yet. They’re worried about two issues: the price of gas and the unpopularity of the Iran war. If you look at the polls, though, there’s some things to remember about if we go through these known unknowns of the election. 

The polls are very confident that the Democrats are gonna take the House and get very close, if not take the Senate. But we remember in the primaries, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan was supposed to defeat his opponent by nine to 10 points and only won by a point and a half. The polls were way off in the Francesca Hong Wisconsin Senate race. 

And they were off in many. They were overvaluing or they were too optimistic, as they were during the Trump-Harris [election]. As a general rule, most pollsters are: A, Democratic. Most polls tend to exaggerate the strength of a Democratic candidate for most of the race. And C, as the race gets down to the Election Day deadline, many of the pollsters will be more realistic so that they can save their reputations after the balloting is conducted. 

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In addition to the polls, there’s uncertainty. We don’t know the effect. We don’t hear much about it. We had these great red-state redistricting wars, and we had the controversial Supreme Court racial gerrymandering case that said you could not artificially craft congressional districts for 750 or so thousand constituents on the basis of race to ensure an election of a person of a particular race. 

But we don’t know. We haven’t had really any analyses of how that’s going to translate in favor of the Republicans. Another known unknown is that in these individual key races in the swing states,........

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