American interest in Alberta separatism over the last 18 months has ranged from overt statements of support from cabinet officials and congressional allies to backing of the sovereignty movement by the wider MAGA media ecosystem online.

In late January, Republican political operatives from Michigan were reportedly in Alberta meeting with separatist organizers about get-out-the-vote software.

A few weeks later, prominent separatist organizers in Alberta admitted to meeting with American officials in Washington about the prospect of the province leaving Canada, but quickly distanced themselves from United States President Donald Trump himself.

Our new research explains why: Trump isn’t popular in Alberta, Albertans know that, and connecting Trump to the separatist movement reduces intentions to vote for separatism.

Call it the “Trump Effect” on Alberta separatism.

Read more: 51st state of mind: As Alberta votes on independence, will Trump back separation?

Why separatists steer clear of Trump

Backing away from Trump himself while meeting with Republicans might mean that separatist organizers know that Albertans, like most Canadians, disapprove of Trump, especially as the Canada-U.S. relationship deteriorates.

If Albertans believe their fellow citizens disapprove of Trump, and they associate the Alberta separatism movement with Trump, they may expect similar disapproval for supporting separatism. Anticipating this social........

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