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For anyone who has watched Iranians take to the streets before, as they have at reasonably regular intervals over the years, this week’s protests had a depressingly familiar feel – viewed from the safety and comfort of the UK, that is.

What started as angry bazaar traders complaining about the economic mismanagement that had led to surging inflation and the collapse of the Iranian rial spread quickly across the country and to almost every level of society at the beginning of January. Tens of thousands of people, desperate to break free from the stifling oppression of the theocracy, took to the streets to call for an end to the Islamic Republic and for a system that would respect their fundamental rights and democratic freedoms.

For a while it felt as if this might be their chance. The Islamic Republic is close to breaking point, with an ageing Ayatollah presiding over a sclerotic regime, a parlous economy and a military weakened and demoralised by the 12-day war with Israel and the virtual destruction of its proxies across the Middle East.

But as has happened so many times before, the bravery of the protesters was met with the savagery of a regime with its backs to the wall, for whom the only response seems to be to massacre, rather than listen to, the people it should be protecting.

Many of those following the story had mixed feelings when the US president, Donald Trump, signalled the US would get involved. Maybe US intervention might be what was needed to collapse the regime and set the people of Iran free, or – at the very least – force the regime to negotiate and agree to some much-needed democratic reforms. On the other hand, a US military intervention in Iran had (and has) the potential to be an utter disaster.

Nevertheless, when Trump posted a message, “Iranian Patriots, keep protesting – take over your institutions!!! … help is on its way,” it felt as if this might be the moment of change. But the US pulled back – unready to act and uncertain of what intervention could achieve. Now the forces of repression are once again taking over Iran’s streets.

We spoke with Scott Lucas, a Middle East expert at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin and a regular commentator on The Conversation, who addressed several of the key issues that will affect the future of Iran.

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