Hannah Spencer’s win in the Gorton and Denton parliamentary byelection was a momentous victory for the Green party. The party’s first-ever byelection win overturned a large Labour majority and put the general election winners into third place, behind Reform UK.

The Greens are eager to position it as a sign of things to come, particularly in the May elections. Here’s what voter trends in Gorton and Denton can tell us about what’s to come.

Voters continue to turn away from the two main parties

Voters are looking for alternatives to the two main parties. Labour’s vote share halved in Gorton and Denton compared to the general election. With a much smaller 2024 base to start from, the Conservatives went from nearly 8% of votes to fewer than 2%, losing their deposit.

This follows a trend we’re seeing at almost every election, regardless of type or location. In the 2025 local elections, fewer than 40% of incumbents from the two main parties held their seats – a figure that had previously never been below 70%. In council byelections, both Reform and the Greens are fielding candidates in more areas, and taking both vote share and seats from the Conservatives and Labour. Labour and the Conservatives are the only two parties with fewer MPs than they started this parliament with.

Constituency opinion polls in the run-up to byelection day showed Labour, Reform and the Greens neck and neck.

But a more striking feature of these polls was how many voters had not yet made up their minds. Even in the final week, an Omnisis poll found that 31% of people who said........

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