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Pre‑election polls understated right in NZ, with overhang skewing preliminary results

21 0
08.11.2026

Preliminary results from Saturday’s New Zealand election indicate there are a total of 11 overhang seats, with parliament expanded from its nominal 120 seats to 131.

Overhangs occur as a result of electors having two votes – one for their local MP and one for their preferred party (which determines overall seat entitlements).

When a party wins more electorate seats than it would be entitled to based on its proportional party vote, more seats have to be added to parliament. An overhang was predicted before the election, but its size has surprised most observers.

This will be the largest overhang in a New Zealand election since the mixed member proportional system (MMP) was first first used is 1996.

National’s party vote of 29.2% was just behind Labour’s on 29.4%, which would normally entitle National to 35 seats.

But of the 71 electorate seats that are elected by first-past-the-post ballot, National is leading in 42, Labour in 21, Te Pāti Māori in five, the........

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