A national Newspoll, conducted April 15–18 from a sample of 1,236, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Newspoll in late March. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 33% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all Others (down one).

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -6, while Peter Dutton’s net approval was steady at -15. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 48–35 (48–34 in March).

The graph below of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll suggests his ratings are slowly improving. His low was -13 in late November, and he’s now at -6. In this graph, the Newspoll data are marked with plus signs, and a smoothed line has been fitted.

Other recent polls from Resolve, Freshwater and Morgan have Labor deteriorating, and it’s now close to even on two-party votes. Furthermore, respondent allocated preferences from Resolve and Morgan are poor for Labor compared with using the 2022 election preference flows that Newspoll uses.

The implication of a weaker respondent preference flow to Labor than at the 2022 election is that Labor’s position in Newspoll may be overstated.

Labor is probably struggling owing to inflation and the cost of living. While Morgan’s measure of consumer confidence increased last week to 83.5, it has been below 85 for a record 63 straight weeks.

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted April 17–21 from a sample of 1,610, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50 by respondent preferences. This is the first time since the 2022 election that Resolve has given a two party estimate.

Primary votes were 36%........

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