Foreign Policy

The Iran War Is Over, For Now

The U.S. and Iran have moved to the next stage of the peace process. Hawks on all sides are terrified that it will succeed.

Matthew Petti | 6.15.2026 10:00 AM

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There have been so many claims about the Iran War ending that it's hard to believe this one. After the April ceasefire, the United States and Iran repeatedly claimed that a full peace deal was around the corner, only to continue firing in hopes of better terms. But that cycle might actually be over for real now.

U.S. President Donald Trump, the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (who was mediating) all confirmed on Sunday night that the parties had agreed to a memorandum of understanding to move forward with the peace process. The U.S. will immediately lift its blockade of Iranian ports, Iran will begin clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz, and, after a signing ceremony on Friday, the countries will begin negotiations for a permanent peace deal.

This comes just in time to avert a serious economic crisis. The oil tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, a hub for the American oil trade, were visibly emptying out last week. Iran's own oil production has fallen to its lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic. "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" declared Trump on Truth Social. Shipping industry associations say it will take some time to return to normal.

Although the full text of the truce isn't public yet, the broad outline has been confirmed by both sides. The U.S. will issue Iran a 60-day waiver to the U.S. embargo on oil exports, and Iran will suspend its toll on passing Hormuz for 60 days. By the end of the truce period, the negotiations are supposed to produce a solution to the Iranian nuclear program, the future management........

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