Pakistan’s agriculture stands at a crossroads. It feeds a rapidly growing population, anchors rural livelihoods with around 38% of the Total Labor force being employed in it, and supplies critical export earnings, yet it is increasingly stressed by climate shocks, policy drift, water scarcity, and demographic pressure. Whether the country can achieve food security by 2050 depends on how decisively it tackles these interconnected challenges over the next decade.

Climate change is the most visible and volatile threat. The sector is overwhelmingly exposed to heat, floods, droughts, and erratic monsoons because most production is rain and river-dependent and concentrated in low-lying plains. Intensifying heatwaves shorten crop growing periods and reduce yields of staples like wheat, rice, and cotton. Floods wash away topsoil, destroy standing crops, and damage rural roads, storage, and canals (2025 Floods are a case-in-point); droughts in arid and semi-arid districts depress livestock health and fodder availability. Beyond immediate losses, climate shocks raise input costs (more irrigation, pest control, replanting) and make bank credit riskier, trapping small farmers in a cycle of recovery rather than investment. Climate resilience—drought/heat-tolerant seed, better drainage and embankments, micro-irrigation, and weather-index insurance exists in pockets, but adoption remains limited by finance, information gaps, and weak extension.

Water stress is the structural challenge beneath the climate volatility. Pakistan’s agricultural heartland was built on the Indus Basin irrigation system, but per-capita water availability has fallen sharply with population growth. Much of the canal network loses water to seepage; flood irrigation wastes more on fields; and groundwater extraction often unmetered depletes aquifers and raises pumping costs as water tables fall. Salinity and waterlogging degrade millions of hectares, silently eroding productivity year after year. Modernization is uneven: some districts use laser land leveling, drip........

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