The strike has been called off, we are told. The immediate tension, it seems to have eased. Iran has reopened its airspace. But is this a resolution, or merely a new kind of tension, a quieter, more deliberate one? We leave it to the future. However, we should look at the evidence, not just the announcements.

There is the fact of the lobbying, the urgent whispers from allies who are meant to be part of the spear, they said, as The New York Times read, Trump’s Gulf Allies Do Not Want Him to Bomb Iran. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Oman—they warned of a major conflict. They feared an intractable war; they were right. 

It is not that they are issuing statements simply and solely; incongruent to that, they look quite serious about the unfolding events. Saudi Arabia denied the use of its airspace. This is a tangible piece of evidence. It is not just disagreement, but more of a physical impediment. What does this tell us? It tells us that the calculus of regional powers has fundamentally diverged from Washington’s. Their fear of chaos (which awaits the fall of Tehran) outweighs their animosity toward Tehran. This is a significant fact.

And then, there is the other side, Iran’s own movements. While under........

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