Opinion | Quad Puts China In A Quandary

The Quad summit in India in 2026 would be as important as the G-7 meeting

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, while speaking at the Munich Security Conference 2026, where he participated in a roundtable discussion titled ‘Delhi Decides: Mapping India’s Policy Calculus’ hosted by Ananta Aspen, fielded questions regarding the Quad, saying that the summit was never cancelled; however, it was never specifically scheduled.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) was initially established in 2007 by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, with participation from India, Australia, and the United States.

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After becoming dormant, it was resurrected in 2017 and elevated to a leader-level format in 2021. The group’s roots lie in the 2004 tsunami core group, which brought the four nations together for disaster relief, but the cognoscenti know that disaster relief is a fig leaf and a euphemism for containing China from going on a rampage in Asia. All the four nations view China with deep suspicion. The first summit was held in 2021, elevating the group from official-level to head-of-state level.

The forum is focused on ensuring a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. Key objectives include maintaining a rules-based order, enhancing maritime security, countering China’s influence, and promoting economic, technological, and health cooperation (e.g., vaccine diplomacy, climate). Countering China, though mentioned alongside other objectives, it seems to be its overarching one, though unstated.

During the 2017 ASEAN Summits in Manila, all four former members led by Abe, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to revive the Quad partnership in order to counter China militarily and diplomatically in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the South China Sea. Tensions between Quad members and China have led to fears of what was dubbed by some commentators “a new Cold War" in the region, and the Chinese government responded to the Quad dialogue by issuing formal diplomatic protests to its members, calling it “Asian NATO".

Enlightened self-interest is the cornerstone of foreign policy. India and Japan have had skirmishes with China. Australia is entirely surrounded by water and shares no land borders with any country. The distance between Australia and China is vast; Beijing is closer to Berlin than to Brisbane, is the common refrain. Japan too is an island nation and hence doesn’t share any land border with China. Only India does. But two tectonic shifts have been taking place almost unobtrusively. First, the beginning of the threat of nuclear warfare, except by rogue nations. That threat is being replaced by cyber warfare, which obliterates distance. Second, diplomacy has assumed huge elements of economic warfare. POTUS Trump is interested in Ukraine, attracted by its rare earth, read minerals. His capture of Venezuela economically is also of a piece with the economic wars marking global affairs. That one beautiful piece of ice, as he described Greenland, is the cynosure of his eyes, puts beyond any doubt his unstated objectives and interests. The short point is distance is of no consequence in groupings. QUAD proves it.

The Quad summit in India in 2026 would be as important as the G-7 meeting. Should all the four political heads meet in person, India’s stock will go up. For the US, your-enemy’s-enemy-is-your-friend underpins its role in Quad. With its sizeable fleets and bases in Asia and the Middle East, USA would be an excellent foil for India in containing Chinese adventures and advancements. But a word of caution is in order. US pursues its own self-interest, especially on the economic front. Both PM Modi and his able EAM know this grim reality. At the end of the day, India has to engage and contain China itself, though QUAD can be counted upon to reduce tensions and apply brakes on the Chinese surreptitious incursions with an eye on rare earth the oceans are supposed to be blessed with in enormous quantities.

Where does Pakistan figure in all these? Pakistan hates India more viscerally than China, with blinding fury, and sends in its homegrown terrorists to target Indian cities and tourist spots. PM Modi and EAM Jaishankar struck back by targeting Pak’s terrorist bases after crafting a new foreign policy—terrorist attacks will not be shrugged off as state-sponsored terrorism, but war, period. The US runs with the hare and hunts with the hound by hyphenating India and Pakistan in its own enlightened self-interest—it has bases on Pakistani soil and interest in its narco-terrorism, a subset of which is cryptocurrency. Pakistan is US’ poodle. It gets the indulgence of the US alright and is grateful for the crumbs thrown at it from time to time. That Quad hasn’t been expanded to include Pakistan is significant.

The former Prime Minister Vajpayee once quipped—you can change your friends but cannot wish away your neighbours. India has the enviable task of keeping two hostile neighbours in check. Quad should ease its tensions.

The writer is a senior columnist. He tweets @smurlidharan. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.

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