“Not now, El Niño,” pleads the astrophysicist-turned climate scientist, Kate Marvel. On top of the fossil fuel crisis and conflicts derailing the world, it appears that Mother Nature is about to provide the umpteenth lesson that we mess with the grand cycles of the Earth to our peril.

The telltale plume of hot water has been spreading in the Eastern Pacific and the world’s forecasters are converging on agreement that an El Niño is brewing. It is likely to be a strong one, perhaps a “super strong” one, maybe even a “Godzilla” of an El Niño, as some more colourful weather forecasters describe it.

The oceans have absorbed about 90 per cent of the excess heat trapped by climate pollution. That’s been an enormously helpful buffer between cause and consequence, in terms of human suffering, so far. But that great service also means we are mostly blind to the staggering amount of pent up energy. “When there is a transition from La Niña to El Niño, it's like the lid is popped off,” releasing the heat, says meteorologist Tom Di Liberto with Climate Central.

El Niño is a naturally occurring event. In fact, even the name itself seems to have been around since the 1600’s when Peruvian fishermen described the arrival of unusually warm water as El Niño de Navidad. It comes at irregular intervals as the planet shifts between neutral conditions, the cooler La Niña phase and temperature-spiking El Niños. But those natural oscillations are now taking place on top of unnaturally supercharged temperatures. 

Right now, we’re transitioning out of a cooler La Niña phase, which should give a sane species pause. Because the cooling phases are now hotter than peaks used to be: even in that cool phase, last year clocked in as the second-hottest year ever recorded on land. For the planet overall, it was the third-hottest year, only marginally behind 2023.........

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