You only had to spend a few minutes looking at social media to feel that something has changed in Europe.

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In the last week there have been warnings from Poland, preparations in Germany, military exercises across the Baltic, evacuation planning in Lithuania and another reminder from Finland that its citizens need to be mentally and practically prepared for disruption. In Paris, Emmanuel Macron summoned France's political leaders to the Élysée Palace, where the heads of the country's intelligence and security agencies briefed them on the deteriorating international situation.

Macron said the Russian hybrid threat against France and Europe had intensified and ordered stronger protection for critical infrastructure against drones, cyber attacks and foreign interference. NATO, meanwhile, has been talking increasingly openly about Russian sabotage, cyber attacks, arson, drone incidents and attempts to undermine public trust across Europe.

Just days ago the alliance said hybrid attacks against our societies, infrastructure and digital networks are happening more frequently and published new resilience requirements designed to keep water, energy, food, communications and healthcare functioning during a crisis or conflict.

I think people in Britain need to understand what that means. It doesn't mean that Russian tanks are going to arrive in Kent next Tuesday. It doesn't mean that somebody in NATO has a date circled on a calendar for the start of World War Three.

But it does mean that the security environment we have become used to over the last few decades has changed, probably for a very long time. Serious disruption is coming. In some forms, it is already here. Cyber attacks, sabotage, attempts to interfere with infrastructure, drones around sensitive sites, disinformation and attacks designed to cause confusion or fear are no longer theoretical scenarios sitting in government planning documents.

NATO's deputy secretary general recently described Russia as the biggest threat to Euro-Atlantic security and pointed not only to the war in Ukraine but to airspace violations, attempted sabotage, arson and intelligence operations across Europe. NATO's military leadership said this weekend that Russia's efforts to undermine trust and weaken unity are a real threat.

That is why I increasingly think we have to stop talking about preparedness as though it is something slightly eccentric people do because they spend too much time watching survival videos on YouTube.

Last week I spoke to Lord Harris, chairman of the National Preparedness Commission, and one of the things that struck me was how undramatic his advice actually was. His basic argument is that Britons need to become more self-reliant because there could be periods during a serious emergency when the systems we depend upon simply aren't available.

The power could go off. Mobile communications could fail or become overloaded. Water supplies could be affected. Card payments might stop working. Shops could struggle to replenish supplies. Emergency services could be dealing with far more serious problems somewhere else. For several days, perhaps, we might have to........

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