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On May 15, the federal and Alberta governments reached an implementation agreement that sets out a plan to achieve important elements of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) on carbon pricing and pipelines they signed in November 2025 — an MOU that the Alberta government has labelled a landmark agreement. Six days later, in an address to Albertans, Premier Danielle Smith announced that she would pose a question to voters in her province this October, asking them whether they want to hold a referendum on independence.

There was something striking in the juxtaposition of what appears to have been substantive positive policy movement on the one hand and, on the other, grievances so deep that the premier felt the need to call a vote on an option for secession.   

Poll after poll has shown support for an independent Alberta hovering around 30 per cent. In our Confederation of Tomorrow survey, conducted in February and March, we find a similar level of support (25 per cent). We have been asking a series of questions annually for several years, with results showing no surge in support for separation (See Figure 1). In fact, as shown in Figure 2, the proportion of Albertans who are strongly or somewhat in favour of independence is little changed from what it was in 2003.

UCP voters versus the rest of Alberta

Still, reporting overall levels of support for independence obscures an underlying dynamic: the polarization between United Conservative Party (UCP) voters and those in the rest of the province. What looks like an Alberta problem is, more precisely, a UCP problem.

This distinction changes everything about how the government of Prime Minister Mark Carney chooses to respond and to which group of voters it targets future policy changes.

Our resentment index combines a series of questions that capture different aspects of how people see their province’s place in the federation — whether the province is getting the respect it deserves, whether it is contributing its fair share to the country, whether it is........

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