In politics, as in comedy, timing is everything. From measuring progress on policies to the deadlines leaders set themselves, the “when” is often as important as the “what”.
And after Jeremy Hunt’s tax-cutting Autumn Statement, it’s no surprise that his decision to implement national insurance (NI) changes on 6 January has triggered a rash of speculation about the timing of the general election.
The Chancellor’s new year boost to pay packets certainly gives Rishi Sunak the option of going to the polls in May, especially if a Spring Budget follows up the NI cuts with lower income tax, inheritance tax or stamp duty rates.
In his morning-after media round, Hunt said “it’s silly to think about this in terms of the timing of the next election”. Some may take that with a hefty shovel of salt, not least as some in Downing Street set the hare running that the party would be on election footing from January.
But to be fair to Hunt, there was a more pressing reason than giving the Government a nice run-up to an election. “Why did I want to bring it in from January? People are still seeing their energy bills go up,” he said. “I want to bring help for families as soon as possible.”
He’s right that there is a need for urgency. As the consumer champion Martin Lewis pointed out, from 1 January the new higher energy price cap kicks in. Because people won’t get the £66 per month subsidy they had last winter, the typical home will pay £28 more in energy bills per month – and around £45 more per month in the coldest months.
That rise alone would more than wipe out the £37 per month that Hunt’s NI cuts will put back in the wage packet of the average earner on about £35,000.
The Government can try to buy votes, but with the clock ticking down to that election their main mission is to try and buy time. That’s what they most need to show the voters that the country really is on the right track, that inflation is in a better place, the economy is growing and living standards are rising.
Timing is crucial for measurement of party promises too, particularly the benchmarks used. It was notable after the Autumn Statement that Treasury officials were much keener on saying that personal taxes had been cut significantly “since 2010” rather than “since 2019”, when the current Parliament started.
The latest net migration statistics are another case in point. The figure of 672,000 for the 12 months to June 2023 looks like a slight improvement, but the figure for the whole of 2022 has been revised up to a record-breaking 745,000.
What makes this even worse is that the Tory 2019 manifesto actually promised to cut migration – from the then figure of 229,000. Amid fears that immigration will wipe out the “good news” of the Autumn Statement, the right-wing group of New Conservative MPs warned of a “do or die” moment for their party and said Sunak has to show how he’ll hit that manifesto target.
Worse still, in a brutal assessment of Hunt’s plans, the Resolution Foundation think-tank has concluded this will be the first Parliament on record in which household incomes in real terms will be lower at the end than at the beginning. Time is running out to turn that around too.
The Prime Minister talks about “long-term decisions” and suggests his growth plans need another term of Tory rule to pay off.
At the next election, Sir Keir Starmer is bound to mock Sunak’s pleas for patience from the electorate, urging the voters to finally “call time” on a weary and jaded party that’s been in power just too long. Any opposition needs to convey a sense of urgency, of the need for change.
But what could prove very tricky for Labour is its attempt to pivot straight after the election to its own plea for patience. Tony Blair famously said on the eve of the 1997 election that there were “24 hours to save the NHS” but took five years to give it a huge injection of funds.
It’s already clear from Starmer and Rachel Reeves that they think it will take at least 10 years to fix “broken Britain”.
The public are prepared to cut their governments some slack, but not indefinitely, and time ultimately is the enemy of all politicians. The only solution is to win a large majority and start work straight away on a credible plan that can deliver real progress on their promises by the time of the next election.
But with voter volatility so high these days, and with attention spans and the news cycle shorter than ever, both main parties have more in common than they admit.
Starmer and Sunak need to admit there are no quick fixes for our flagging economy
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23.11.2023
In politics, as in comedy, timing is everything. From measuring progress on policies to the deadlines leaders set themselves, the “when” is often as important as the “what”.
And after Jeremy Hunt’s tax-cutting Autumn Statement, it’s no surprise that his decision to implement national insurance (NI) changes on 6 January has triggered a rash of speculation about the timing of the general election.
The Chancellor’s new year boost to pay packets certainly gives Rishi Sunak the option of going to the polls in May, especially if a Spring Budget follows up the NI cuts with lower income tax, inheritance tax or stamp duty rates.
In his morning-after media round, Hunt said “it’s silly to think about this in terms of the timing of the next election”. Some may take that with a hefty shovel of salt, not least as some in Downing Street set the hare running that the party would be on election footing from January.
But to be fair to Hunt, there was a more pressing reason than giving the Government a nice run-up to an election. “Why did I want to bring it in from January? People are still seeing their energy........
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