For journalists gathered at Reform UK’s New Year press conference, the sense of disappointment was palpable.
Party leader Richard Tice duly set out his plans for election year, but the real draw had been the possible appearance of Nigel Farage – and the Brexit maestro just wasn’t there.
In a live TV event that could roughly be titled “He’s The Celebrity, Get Him In Here!”, Tice was repeatedly asked about Farage’s potential return to front-line politics. Reduced to the role of underwhelming understudy, he could only say the ex-Ukip leader was “still assessing” what his role would be.
“I know that a good poker player doesn’t show their hand too early,” he said. “Nigel is the master of political timing. But I am very clear, the job at hand is so big, to save Britain, the more help that Nigel is able to give in the election campaign, frankly the better.”
That sounded like Tice trying to cite the Nigel no-show as evidence of cunning calculation, rather than prevarication or confusion. Yet for all the Reform leader’s attempt to mimic Farage, his admission that “many people haven’t heard of us” told its own story.
And there are plenty of reasons to be sceptical about Reform UK’s chances of political progress in 2024. Its very name is nowhere near as catchy or single-issue as the Brexit Party or UK Independence Party.
It lacks any kind of grassroots network vital to winning local elections (this May’s council polling day may confirm that), and has so far barely registered even in most by-elections that are a free hit for protest votes. Its lack of basic data to identify which potential voters live where (the powerhouse of the main parties) could undermine a general election push too.
Tice’s own launch also laid bare some of the confused messaging in his party’s pitch to the voters. While calling Rishi Sunak a “socialist” sounded frankly bonkers, pledging to cut public spending (and taxes) and end “job-destroying” net-zero policies also risked deterring the Labour-turned-Tory voters who actually like state spending and the “Red Wall” jobs that come from clean tech.
Interpreting the Brexit vote as a vote for Thatcherism would be a big misreading of the North and Midlands. But it also exposes Reform UK’s own difficulty in trying to build a coalition of its own, of right-wing Tories and ex-Labour voters, who often have little in common other than a desire to see immigration numbers come down.
Just as Boris Johnson’s sheer force of personality meant he was probably the only Tory capable of selling a combination of higher state spending (especially on the NHS and green jobs) and a hard Brexit, so too Nigel Farage may be the only figure who could make Reform UK a real threat.
Farage is also a proven master of messaging, capable of spotting the Tories’ biggest weaknesses.
When the Prime Minister tried to suggest his illegal migration policies were working this week, Farage was brutal in his takedown, saying that “in an effort to rush through the asylum backlog… Sunak has granted 50,000 new applications”.
When Home Secretary James Cleverly hailed a drop in English channel crossings, Farage called him “a moron” because the rough seas seemed to be the real cause.
Even if he has a limited role of campaign chief rather than leader, Farage is also canny enough to know the damage he could inflict on the Conservatives with Reform UK candidates standing in every parliamentary seat (unlike 2019 when his Brexit Party refused to stand against sitting Tory MPs).
The Tories will also be fighting a general election on multiple fronts too. Although Tice tried to ridicule the Lib Dems for their rival New Year launch in the “Blue Wall” heartland of Guildford, both “small” parties had exactly the same message: Sunak is running scared of an election.
Moreover, Ed Davey’s party could inflict even more Tory damage than Reform UK. Yes, the Lib Dem leader’s latest photo-op – driving a removal van to get Sunak out of No 10 – was as deliberately cringeworthy as all his other stunts with orange hammers and tractors; but it once more told moderate, liberal Conservatives that here is a safe vehicle for booting out the Ukip-lite Tory party.
Whereas Reform UK tried to paint an incoming Labour government as a “Starmergeddon”, Davey’s team believe that (unlike under Jeremy Corbyn and even Ed Miliband) many southern voters simply don’t feel that threatened by Keir Starmer. Not for nothing did Davey rule out a coalition with the Tories but refuse to rule one out with Labour after his launch.
Crucially, this election year isn’t the Lib Dems’ first rodeo. In contrast to Reform, they have a formidable network of local ground troops and voter ID data, allowing them to expertly target limited resources on key seats. Expect Lib Dem gains in May’s local elections in yet more “Blue Wall” heartlands.
Under general election broadcasting rules, the Lib Dems will also be guaranteed mainstream TV airtime (thanks to past results) that Reform simply won’t be able to match, even though they are roughly close in national polling at around 10 per cent. (Although GB News is a regular platform for Farage).
Many Tory MPs certainly see the “yellow peril” as a serious threat, particularly as they piled up impressive local council gains in recent years. Sunak’s recall of David Cameron suggests he is at least alive to the prospect of a “Blue Wall” meltdown.
A new study by think thank UK In A Changing Europe confirms that between 2015 and 2019 there was a seismic shift in working-class votes from Labour to the Tories, which is being partially reversed now. But there was also a shift in middle-class votes away from the Conservatives, which has accelerated.
The biggest threat to the Conservatives, the factor that risks turning a small Labour majority into a Labour landslide, is tactical voting.
The past year of big-swing local and by-election results suggests an electorate seeking out the best possible route to routing the Tories from office – and voting accordingly. Labour supporters are ready to back Lib Dems where necessary, and Lib Dem supporters return the favour in key Tory-Labour battlegrounds.
And although Reform UK won’t broadcast it, their decision to stand in every Tory constituency could deliver an extra dozen seats to the Lib Dems, as well as an extra dozen to Labour.
For Farage, the ultimate prize may be a Tory wipeout followed by a begging plea to rejoin them and help rescue them from opposition. Then we’d really find out just how much pulling power the former Brexit leader commands with the whole electorate.
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