When Rishi Sunak stood in Warsaw alongside the head of Nato to announce his plan to boost UK defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030, it was a sight quickly cheered by the Tory party. After defence was notably missing from the spring budget, this was the pledge many in the cabinet and on the right of the party had long hoped to see.
In addition to boosting Britain’s defences, the announcement was intended to boost Sunak, too. It formed part of “Shore Up Sunak” week as Downing Street aides do what they can to put their boss in the strongest possible position ahead of tricky local elections next week. Also on the menu: Sunak’s announcement of a benefits crackdown and the Rwanda bill clearing the Lords late on Monday night. All three play well to the party.
‘They are doing a decent job of protecting Rishi,” says an MP who is not a natural ally of the prime minister. Defence is a key area where he is seen to be weak compared to rivals so it neutralises that and brings colleagues on side.
The timing, too, of the Rwanda vote is not coincidental. Sunak was criticised before the spring recess for letting MPs go home early after the Lords once again sent back the Safety of Rwanda bill with amendments. If it was, as he claimed, an emergency, then why not make MPs stay and vote? But passing it this week means MPs ought to go into campaign mode with a sense that the beginnings of a plan are underway.
He needs it. As next week’s local elections draw closer, so too does the Prime Minister’s showdown with his critics. Roll up, roll up – as it’s about to be the final round of Sunak versus the plotters.
Since the beginning of the year, it’s been clear that a group of Conservatives want Sunak gone before the next election in a bid to avoid electoral catastrophe by moving the party to the right.
Reports of the plotters’ antics in recent months have been frequent, from a mysteriously funded YouGov poll pointing to Tory wipeout aimed at turning MPs against the Prime Minister, to the mysterious West End office where members of the rag-tag crew meet to… plot. The whole thing is viewed by Downing Street as self-indulgent kamikaze behaviour that is heavily contributing to the disastrous polling.
While many are at pains to keep their identities private, those keen to see Sunak depart office this side of the election include former Tory aides with time on their hands, and some Tory MPs who (mostly privately) argue they would be better off switching leader. Meanwhile, while no-one in the Cabinet is agitating to push Sunak out now there are some ministers wooing colleagues so they are ready just in case the post-election leadership contest begins prematurely.
What all these groups agree on is that the window of opportunity if there is to be a pre-election change of leader is the two weeks after the local elections. As one plotter puts it: “I think the Tory party should change leader but it’s up to MPs. May is realistically the latest you could do it given it’s an election year. If the party decides not to, I won’t keep pushing it.”
Downing Street has long been aware that May marks a danger point. Last year’s local elections stunted any sense of as Tory recovery – and they were easier compared with these ones. In 2023, the councils up for election had last been voted on in the low point of the May era yet the Tories under Sunak still lost over a 1000 seats. This time around, the councils and mayoralties up for grabs were last contested at the Boris Johnson high point.
Despite this, those hoping to oust Sunak are currently on the pessimistic side. They believe their chances of succeeding have fallen since about a month ago when morale both in the Tory party and No 10 was at a low. Sunak had a nightmare week which included a racism row and Lee Anderson defecting to Reform.
It was then that some around the Cabinet table started to believe a leadership challenge was inevitable after May. However, there is a sense that the threat is receding after a period of calm. “We’ve not had a really bad week for a bit now,” says one MP. “He needs to keep it that way.”
There is also yet to be a willing challenger. Member favourite Kemi Badenoch has criticised the plotters and Priti Patel is currently winning points for loyalty to Sunak. Those pushing for Sunak to go believe a Penny Mordaunt takeover (she is seen as the most likely contender on the grounds her seat may not be hers after the election) is their best bet – but no one is convinced she’ll go for it. It’s not the most appetising prospect given that any Tory leader who takes the party into defeat would near certainly be ousted aftewards.
Yet it’s worth remembering that for all the talk of a bad night being “priced in”, the same was said last year. Yet despite this the party fared even worse than their expectation management figures – losing over 1000 seats. Sunak never recovered from this. As one No 10 aide puts it: “Things have not being going well since the locals last year.” It means there is always space for things to take a turn for the worse. The nightmare scenario in government at which point even No 10 believe things would be unpredictable is if both metro mayors – Andy Street and Ben Houchen – lose.
If Sunak wins this battle, the plotters may still try to claim victory later down the line. Sunak taking the party to a disastrous defeat could move MPs away from his brand of centre politics and to a more radical place – if so, the future direction of the Tory party could give them the last laugh.
Katy Balls is the political editor of The Spectator
Inside the battle to oust Sunak: hardcore anti-Sunak plotters haven't given up yet
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24.04.2024
When Rishi Sunak stood in Warsaw alongside the head of Nato to announce his plan to boost UK defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030, it was a sight quickly cheered by the Tory party. After defence was notably missing from the spring budget, this was the pledge many in the cabinet and on the right of the party had long hoped to see.
In addition to boosting Britain’s defences, the announcement was intended to boost Sunak, too. It formed part of “Shore Up Sunak” week as Downing Street aides do what they can to put their boss in the strongest possible position ahead of tricky local elections next week. Also on the menu: Sunak’s announcement of a benefits crackdown and the Rwanda bill clearing the Lords late on Monday night. All three play well to the party.
‘They are doing a decent job of protecting Rishi,” says an MP who is not a natural ally of the prime minister. Defence is a key area where he is seen to be weak compared to rivals so it neutralises that and brings colleagues on side.
The timing, too, of the Rwanda vote is not coincidental. Sunak was criticised before the spring recess for letting MPs go home early after the Lords once again sent back the Safety of Rwanda bill with amendments. If it was, as he claimed, an emergency, then why not make MPs stay and vote? But passing it this week means MPs ought to go into campaign mode with a sense that the beginnings of a plan are underway.........
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