Keir Starmer spent much of 2025 trying to paper over the damage to the UK of a divisive, poorly handled Brexit by his predecessors. In 2026, the Europe problem will return to haunt him.

The problem this time, though, is not a divide between Red Wall Brexiteers and stalwart Remainers. Starmer is a pro-European about to suffer an overdose of pro-Europeanism in his ranks, as support for re-entry into a European customs union sprouts. That trend has breached yet another of those problematic pre-election manifesto “red lines”, which clearly ruled out such a move; but then ferrets do tend to get reversed in the Keir era.

More consequentially, it opens a risky challenge to his way of dealing with the trade-offs of policy in the UK’s relations with the EU, the US, and the wider world.

One way or the other, “CU back in Europe” is the motto under which a growing number of supporters are marching, with less concern for the strictures the PM has applied to his “re-connection” with the continent.

Justice secretary and deputy prime minister David Lammy was first to bust through the omertà on re-writing Europe policy on the hoof when he mused on the benefits of Turkey’s bespoke deal in December, saying: “You can see countries like Turkey with a customs union seemingly benefiting and seeing growth in their economy.”

Two big leaps lurk in this statement. For one, the Turkey agreement is a partial and historic one – i.e. one unlikely to be repeated in current circumstances – and for another, it also rules out most agricultural products, coal and steel for public procurement, the very areas the UK most hankers for reductions in post-Brexit frictions and limitations in existing tariff-free deals.

Yet the underlying message is also echoed by other senior Cabinet folk and potential prime ministerial........

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