For the first time in history, technology is not one factor among many driving economic growth. It is the foundation on which all other progress is being built. India’s semiconductor and AI choices in the next three years will determine if it can become a principal player in the economy of this century.

Taiwan is indispensable to the world economy because it has mastered semiconductor fabrication. South Korea’s KOSPI returned 72 per cent in 2025, driven by Samsung and SK Hynix riding the AI chip supercycle. China has deployed an estimated $150 billion towards semiconductor self-sufficiency since 2015. The US passed the CHIPS Act — a $53 billion direct subsidy, catalysing $450 billion in private investment.

India has two of the three ingredients for technological greatness: Demographic scale and intellectual capital. Our engineers and scientists are at the forefront of global AI and semiconductor development.

India has historically underinvested in technological sovereignty. The risk is sharpening fast. The US government’s moves restricting access to certain AI models were a clear signal that technology denial is part of the geopolitical toolkit. An India that does not build its capability will find itself on the wrong side of that divide permanently.

India Semiconductor Mission, Design Linked Incentive (DLI), and IndiaAI Mission are the right first moves. I was part of the team that built them under PM Narendra Modi’s leadership. But first moves are not destinations. The question is whether India will now make the second, smarter set of moves that........

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