As I sit down to write this column, it is Thursday, November 30, the day of polling in Telangana, the last of the five states electing a new state Assembly. You will read it on Sunday, December 3, the day of counting in all the states, except Mizoram, where it has been deferred to December 4. This period falls between the day of hope for all and the day of despair for all but one!
The stakes are high for the Congress which is in play in all the five states. The BJP is in play in only three states where it is in direct contest with the Congress — Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Its fortunes have rapidly declined in Telangana resulting in a direct contest between the BRS (the incumbent) and the Congress. In Mizoram, the principal players are the two regional parties, MNF (the incumbent) and ZPM. Given the past record, the Congress is a third player, the BJP is a pretender.
The Issues
The long shadow of price rise and unemployment has fallen on the elections. Mr Modi avoided both but the Congress hammered away on both subjects. The Congress’ guarantees, following the successful model tried in Karnataka, were powerful weapons. The promise of a caste survey set the cat among the pigeons. Mr Modi’s sole plank was corruption. While the results of the state elections are important, we may not over-interpret the results as a forerunner to the national election. The lessons of 2018 and 2019 are fresh in everyone’s mind.
Chhattisgarh: Everyone seems to think that it is the easiest election to call. It went to polls first (along with Mizoram) on November 7. The BJP had ruled the state for three successive terms (2003-2018). At the end of 2017-18, Chhattisgarh was one of the poorest states of India: 39 per cent of the population lived in poverty. Congress was voted to power in 2018. The priority given to agriculture has turned the state into the ‘rice bowl of India’. Per capita income has increased from Rs 88,793 (2018) to Rs 133,897 (2023). Approximately, 40 lakh people have come out of poverty in five years. The BJP went into the election without the face of a leader. It was Mr Modi everywhere. The rise in prosperity will be decisive. Congress will be the winner.
Madhya Pradesh is due for a change. The incumbent BJP government (under Mr Shivraj Singh Chouhan) is widely regarded as a usurper that engineered defections and came to power in March 2020. The people also know that the BJP’s leadership no longer trusts Mr Chouhan and will not make him chief minister. The BJP has thrown several Union ministers and serving MPs into the fray and tried to blunt incumbency. It is the 14-year-long stint versus Ladli Behna scheme of Mr Chouhan. The never-say-die Mr Kamal Nath is expected to pull the Congress near the half-way line.
Both sides claim victory and the prize may go to the party with a stronger organisation and better booth management skills.
Rajasthan is an enigma. Since the 10th general election in 1993, the state has alternated between the BJP and the Congress. The conventional wisdom is that the government will change again. Mr Ashok Gehlot, however, is confident and may rely upon ‘independents’. The irony is that the BJP (without a local face, it is the familiar story of Mr Modi everywhere) also seems to rely on the ‘independents’.
The Independent candidates are none other than aspirants denied tickets by the two parties and are suspected to be the ‘secret weapons’ of the two parties. Neither party may cross, on its own, the half-way mark. Who will help whom after December 3 is the hottest topic in Jaipur. The drama, post-election, promises to be more interesting than the election race.
The Other Horses
Telangana is in a category of its own. Mr Chandrashekar Rao, the yesteryear crusader for Telangana, is now widely dubbed as ‘farmhouse chief minister’. The government is run by a family; that is both the strength and the weakness of BRS. The Congress, led by the intrepid
Mr Revanth Reddy, has seen a remarkable surge and is threatening to topple the BRS. Observers have perceived a wave in rural Telangana against the government. The BJP’s campaign has fizzled out but it may still win a few seats. If BRS hangs on, it will be by a slender thread and will hope that the AIMIM (6-7 seats) and the BJP (upto 6 seats)will bail it out. If Congress defeats BRS, it will be because of the rural and youth votes. We may expect a surprise.
Mizoram: The election was dominated by one issue — the Kuki migrants from Manipur — and both MNF and ZPM made capital on the fraternal bonds between Zomos and Kukis. Sensing the anger of the people, Mr Modi cancelled his campaign visit to Mizoram. (He has not visited Manipur since May 3, 2023 when the violence erupted). It is a battle between MNF and ZPM. Whoever wins is expected to support the party ruling at the Centre and the result will not have a national impact.
These five state elections will be decisive on the question who will be the principal challenger to the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It will also throw up the issues that are of the most concern to the people.
Five state elections will decide who will be the principal challenger to BJP in 2024
10
1
03.12.2023
As I sit down to write this column, it is Thursday, November 30, the day of polling in Telangana, the last of the five states electing a new state Assembly. You will read it on Sunday, December 3, the day of counting in all the states, except Mizoram, where it has been deferred to December 4. This period falls between the day of hope for all and the day of despair for all but one!
The stakes are high for the Congress which is in play in all the five states. The BJP is in play in only three states where it is in direct contest with the Congress — Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Its fortunes have rapidly declined in Telangana resulting in a direct contest between the BRS (the incumbent) and the Congress. In Mizoram, the principal players are the two regional parties, MNF (the incumbent) and ZPM. Given the past record, the Congress is a third player, the BJP is a pretender.
The Issues
The long shadow of price rise and unemployment has fallen on the elections. Mr Modi avoided both but the Congress hammered away on both subjects. The Congress’ guarantees, following the successful model tried in Karnataka, were powerful weapons. The promise of a caste survey set the cat among the pigeons. Mr Modi’s sole plank was........
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