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Consumer confidence hit a two-year high as Americans are feeling more upbeat about their job prospects and less concerned about inflation and higher interest rates.

For the third-straight month, the Conference Board's overall sentiment index increased from a revised measure of 108.0 in December to 114.8 in January, the highest level since December 2021. The gauge measuring consumers' current assessment of business conditions and the labor market spiked to 161.3, compared to 147.2 in December. Americans' overall outlook for their personal income, job prospects, and the business climate also improved.

"Consumers are starting off the year in good spirits," said Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson in a statement with the survey release. "January's increase in consumer confidence likely reflected slower inflation, anticipation of lower interest rates ahead, and generally favorable employment conditions as companies continue to hoard labor."

This latest snapshot of sentiment validates the vibe change captured earlier this month by the University of Michigan's consumer survey. "If you need convincing that consumers are regaining some lost swagger," then this is it, Wells Fargo senior economist Tim Quinlan, economist Shannon Seery Grein, and economic analyst Jeremiah Kohl wrote in a note after the Conference Board's survey came out, adding that the consumer expectations of inflation will not be lost on the Federal Reserve policymakers, who are currently meeting ahead of tomorrow's interest rate decision and press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The share of consumers that expect interest rates to increase this year fell to 41.5 percent, the lowest share since 2020. When asked about their inflation expectations over the next 12 months, the average fell to 5.2 percent, the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020.

Even though consumers are generally feeling cheerier, their views on the business climate were mixed. The share of survey respondents that said business conditions were good increased in January, while fewer people described conditions as poor. But when asked about their expectations for business conditions over the next six months, consumers were less optimistic. Fewer consumers expect business conditions to improve in the short-term, but also, fewer people expect things to get worse.

Despite some recent high-profile instances of layoffs, Americans are still feeling positive about the historically tight labor market. With an unemployment rate stuck at 3.7 percent, nearly half of consumers said jobs were plentiful. The share of survey respondents that said jobs were hard to get fell below ten percent.

This uptick in sentiment was broad based and measured across all age groups, with the biggest gains coming from consumers over the age of 55. Confidence also increased across tax brackets with only the highest earners with annual household incomes above $125,000 feeling slightly more pessimistic.

While Wells Fargo noted the increase in sentiment, the economists did issue a word of caution that holds true for any consumer survey. "We tend to take the consumer confidence data with a grain of salt, both on the way down and the ride back up," the economists wrote. "Households don't always do what they say."

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QOSHE - Pessimism Takes a Back Seat as Consumer Confidence Hits a Two-Year High - Ali Donaldson
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Pessimism Takes a Back Seat as Consumer Confidence Hits a Two-Year High

7 5
31.01.2024

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Consumer confidence hit a two-year high as Americans are feeling more upbeat about their job prospects and less concerned about inflation and higher interest rates.

For the third-straight month, the Conference Board's overall sentiment index increased from a revised measure of 108.0 in December to 114.8 in January, the highest level........

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