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After years of recession warnings, economists are now increasingly confident that the U.S. will avoid a downturn in 2024.

That's according to the National Association of Business Economists's latest business conditions survey. In its January survey of members, the professional organization found that 91 percent of the business economists put the odds of a recession over the next twelve months at 50 percent or less, down from 79 percent of economists, who said so when asked the same question in October. The share of economists, who think a recession is more likely than not, decreased to nine percent, down from 18 percent in the previous survey.

In a statement with the report, NABE President Ellen Zentner, who serves as the chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, said the "results suggest broad improvement, with respondents reporting rising sales, profit margins, and capital spending, while supply chains are improving."

In the survey, NABE polled 57 of its members and collected their responses between December 28 and January 9. The report was released on Monday.

The survey also asked about current conditions at their companies, and more economists reported higher sales within the past three months. The net rising index for sales, which is calculated as the percentage of respondents indicating rising sales minus the percentage indicating falling sales, spiked from 6 in October to 37 in January. That marked the measure's highest level since April 2022. Economists' outlook for profit margins at their companies also improved with the net rising index for profit margins increasing 30 points from October.

Even with a more optimistic outlook for the economy and their employers' bottom lines, inflation remains top of mind. In the survey, 72 percent of economists said their firms are passing all or some of their increased costs onto their customers, up from 65 percent in October. Still, there was some good news on the inflation front. More economists reported their companies' prices had fallen.

NABE's business conditions survey chair Carlos Herrera, who serves as the chief economist for Coca-Cola's North American division, noted the mixed picture in a statement, saying, "Inflation is continuing to moderate, but the path forward is not clear...Wages and material costs are expected to rise."

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