Reform UK’s rise is no longer unstoppable, with fresh polling across the UK’s parliaments showing the party stalling as Tory support edges up, tactical voting grows and internal missteps begin to bite, says Gregor Gall

For most commentators and observers, the story of Reform UK has been one of witnessing an insurgent and intensifying star. Fronted by Nigel Farage and especially with a spate of recent high-profile defections from the Tories like Nadhim Zahawi and Robert Jenrick, it seems agreed by all that Reform’s star just keeps rising and rising.

But stars cannot only wax. They can also wane. So, with the aid of a little scratching beneath the surface, it seems that Farage and his merry band of men and women have actually started to experience their first floundering.

Such stalling and stumbling are not to suggest that Farage and Reform are now set on a decreasing, downward path. They are not yet quite staggering. Rather, the stalling and stumbling show Farage and Reform have some palpable problems which are registering with the electorate.

For the Westminster Parliament, from March 2024 until November 2024, Reform’s average popularity rose from 10% to 20% in the polls. After that, it rose to a high of 31%-32% in October 2025. This rise was continuous but then it fell back for the first time since the 2024 general election to 27%-28%.

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For the Welsh Parliament, the Senedd, and even with far fewer polls having been conducted, the same trend is observable. In April 2024, Reform broke through the 10% barrier and rose........

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