It wasn’t even close. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation won the August 29 Secret Harbour by-election in Western Australia with 38.9% of the primary vote, up from 8.43% in the March 2025 state election.

With preferences, it secured 57% of the two-party preferred vote. Labor's primary vote slumped to 24.3%, down from 46.5%. The Liberals came in third with 17%.

The Greens ran a strong campaign, targeting the cost of living and AUKUS, but their vote dipped slightly from 8.82% to 7.64%.

The hope of some Labor party strategists after the South Australian state election that the nationwide surge in support for One Nation would mostly eat away Liberal or National Party votes was smashed.

Labor's candidate was Georgia Tree, a former lobbyist for oil and gas giant Woodside who no longer lived in the electorate. This did not help her credibility but the size of the swing indicates that this was a secondary factor.

There was as much dirt swirling around the One Nation candidate, whose party is even more explicit in its support for the fossil fuel industry.

There has been a four-decade decline in the primary vote for both Labor and Coalition. The thumping wins by WA Labor between 2017 and 2025 temporarily disguised this reality.

While Labor’s parliamentary majorities are real, they were and did not represent a new generation of “rusted on” loyal voters. That no longer exists like it did in the past.

Instability is the new normal in Australian politics.

In this turmoil One Nation’s........

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