Ray Dalio: the ‘heart attack’ of America’s debt crisis is just the beginning of a ‘great turbulence’ that will reshape the country

Ray Dalio has been warning for years that America’s debt problem could trigger an economic “heart attack.” Now he’s saying that’s only part of the story.

The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates is widening his alarm, arguing in a recent conversation with The New York Times‘ Ross Douthat that the U.S. is entering a period of “great turbulence” so severe that the country will be “almost unrecognizable” in five years. He describes the coming era as “going through a time warp”—a phrase that captures just how disorienting and swift the transformation could be.

The heart attack is still coming

Dalio’s fiscal warning remains as stark as ever. The U.S. currently spends roughly $7 trillion annually while collecting about $5 trillion in revenue—a gap that has the federal government paying billions every week in debt service and has left the country carrying debt approximately six times its income. He likens the situation to “plaque building up” in an artery: no heart attack yet, but the nation’s financial “MRI” suggests one is coming if spending isn’t curtailed.

(In fact, Dalio understated how much the U.S. pays in interest each week: The Peter G. Peterson Foundation reports the U.S. paid $970 billion in interest in 2025, with the CBO projecting $1.039 trillion in 2026—working out to roughly $19 billion–$20 billion per week.)

The most likely outcome, in Dalio’s view, is a stagflationary spiral reminiscent of the 1970s, in which the Federal Reserve is eventually forced to print money to cover its obligations. “My grandchildren and........

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