As 2026 begins, there’s little doubt that U.S. President Donald Trump will remain a towering figure in geopolitics. He will mark one year in office by attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and will continue to be influential in global conflicts, trade, and immigration. At home, Trump will look to stave off his domestic opponents as they coalesce around a political platform based on affordability.

What are the key events to keep an eye on as January kicks off? On the latest episode of FP Live, I spoke with Peter Baker, the chief White House correspondent for the New York Times, who has covered six U.S. presidencies and reported overseas from Moscow and Jerusalem, among other places. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page or download the FP Live podcast. What follows here is a lightly edited and condensed transcript.

As 2026 begins, there’s little doubt that U.S. President Donald Trump will remain a towering figure in geopolitics. He will mark one year in office by attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and will continue to be influential in global conflicts, trade, and immigration. At home, Trump will look to stave off his domestic opponents as they coalesce around a political platform based on affordability.

What are the key events to keep an eye on as January kicks off? On the latest episode of FP Live, I spoke with Peter Baker, the chief White House correspondent for the New York Times, who has covered six U.S. presidencies and reported overseas from Moscow and Jerusalem, among other places. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page or download the FP Live podcast. What follows here is a lightly edited and condensed transcript.

Ravi Agrawal: How do you think Trump is going to mark the country’s 250th anniversary?

Peter Baker: I think he couldn’t be happier to be the president who’s in office when this happens. He loves nothing more than a big show. He loves nothing more than a patriotic display and wrapping himself in the flag—he literally did that in his first term once. So I think he’s going to find all kinds of ways to put this birthday on display and to associate himself with it.

It’s going to be interesting to watch whether the Department of the Treasury, for instance, follows through on something they’ve discussed doing, which is putting his face on a commemorative coin. We’ve already seen him put his face on tickets, along with George Washington’s, for National Park admissions in 2026. He likes to make himself out as the custodian, if you will, of American patriotism. So I would expect lots of showmanship, lots of military flyovers, and all that kind of stuff. It’s hard to imagine somebody more eager for this kind of an event.

RA: Let’s talk a bit about immigration. It’s a World Cup year, but there’s already some controversy over how the tickets are the most expensive ever and the fact that the White House has banned travel now from several dozen countries, which will make it much harder for fans from many African countries, especially, to come and watch the games.

I want to use that as a way to talk more broadly about immigration policy and how it plays out in 2026. I have to say, Trump has not deported anywhere near as many people as we expected, or he suggested, he might one year ago. But instead he seems to have put a giant “do not come here” sign on the southern border and elsewhere. What’s your sense of how immigration plays out as an issue in 2026?

PB: I think you’re right. He has successfully stopped the flow of people coming over the southern border. That was a big crisis during the Biden administration that didn’t get fully addressed by the president, and it fueled the reelection of Donald Trump. No question about it.

Where things have been more controversial is the rounding up of people in the streets—not just criminals but everyday residents of America who may be here unauthorized, without documentation—in some cases with some documentation—who are just living their lives, working their jobs, raising their families, and yet are suddenly handcuffed and put into detention facilities by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents. I think a lot of Americans have recoiled at that. The question is whether he has any kind of reboot in the second year. You’re right to say........

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