One of the goals of the Trump administration’s pressure campaign against Cuba—including a comprehensive oil embargo, expanded U.S. Defense Department contingency planning, a U.S. indictment of former Cuban President Raúl Castro, and increasing calls on Capitol Hill for a military intervention—is to foment internal dissent that would lead to the toppling of the communist regime on the island. But the efforts have failed so far because emigration, Cuba’s most reliable release valve for dissent, remains functional despite U.S. efforts to shut it down.

In previous periods of political and economic crisis, most Cuban migrants went to the United States. But a growing share is now heading to Latin America, including Brazil and Mexico. These destination countries bear the downstream costs of U.S. policy toward Cuba, giving them leverage that could shape their responses to Washington’s future actions in the hemisphere.

One of the goals of the Trump administration’s pressure campaign against Cuba—including a comprehensive oil embargo, expanded U.S. Defense Department contingency planning, a U.S. indictment of former Cuban President Raúl Castro, and increasing calls on Capitol Hill for a military intervention—is to foment internal dissent that would lead to the toppling of the communist regime on the island. But the efforts have failed so far because emigration, Cuba’s most reliable release valve for dissent, remains functional despite U.S. efforts to shut it down.

In previous periods of political and economic crisis, most Cuban migrants went to the United States. But a growing share is now heading to Latin America, including Brazil and Mexico. These destination countries bear the downstream costs of U.S. policy toward Cuba, giving them leverage that could shape their responses to Washington’s future actions in the hemisphere.

This changing migration pattern is largely the result of the Trump administration’s restrictive approach to relations with the island. Since returning to office in January 2025, Trump has implemented a maximum pressure campaign against Cuba and imposed limits on Cuban emigration to the United States.

The White House has included Cuba on a list of 39 countries subject to full or partial travel restrictions, as well as on a list of 75 countries facing an indefinite freeze on visa processing. It also terminated a humanitarian parole program designed to facilitate eligible Cubans’ legal entry into the United States and ended bilateral migration talks that occurred regularly under former U.S. President Joe Biden.

These measures mark a departure from decades of U.S. policy. In the years following the Cuban Revolution in the 1950s, there were repeated outflows of Cuban migrants during periods of crisis.........

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