When thinking about the political transition that’s so desperately needed in Iran, it’s useful to conduct a thought experiment: When have outside attempts to encourage political change succeeded and when have they made the situation worse?

The list of negative examples is long. Iraq and Afghanistan are the most bitter recent examples. But arguably the misapplication of force is the leitmotif of modern U.S. foreign policy, a chain of failure girdling the globe from Cuba to Somalia, Nicaragua to the Democratic Republic of Congo.

When thinking about the political transition that’s so desperately needed in Iran, it’s useful to conduct a thought experiment: When have outside attempts to encourage political change succeeded and when have they made the situation worse?

The list of negative examples is long. Iraq and Afghanistan are the most bitter recent examples. But arguably the misapplication of force is the leitmotif of modern U.S. foreign policy, a chain of failure girdling the globe from Cuba to Somalia, Nicaragua to the Democratic Republic of Congo.

We’re not alone in our inability to use military power to impose political change. Israel, supposedly the master of covert operations, has been trying without success to pound the Palestinians into compliant coexistence for half a century. China doesn’t do much better trying to combat Taiwanese democracy, nor does Russia in its campaign to throttle Ukrainian sovereignty. Foreign pressure tends to stiffen people’s resolve rather than break it.

So let’s think carefully about how the United States should help overthrow the despotic clerical regime in Iran that has slaughtered thousands of its own people over the past week, according to the group Iran Human Rights. Bombing the military and security forces would send a righteous message, but would it help create a pathway to a modern, democratic Iran? The Trump administration seems to........

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