For most of 2025, a sense of optimism pervaded Washington’s outlook on the Middle East. A Gaza cease-fire was implemented, which, despite continuing violence, helped end two years of brutal warfare. Hamas was hollowed out as a military organization capable of threatening Israel. Iran’s “axis of resistance” was shattered, and its ballistic missile and nuclear program was left reeling from 12 days of Israeli and U.S. bombing. Hezbollah was decapitated, leaving Israel’s northern border quieter than it had been in years. And in the most extraordinary change, a new regime in Syria opened closer relations with Washington, raising the prospect of a U.S.-brokered Israeli-Syrian security accord.

As 2025 draws to a close, however, these promising developments—which the Trump administration has cast in transformative terms—have collided with the harsh realities of regional politics and the recalcitrance of a variety of Middle Eastern players. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are down but not out. Israel continues to use its military power to preempt and prevent hostile activity in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, occupying real estate in all three areas. The West Bank simmers as Israel continues its de facto annexationist policies.

For most of 2025, a sense of optimism pervaded Washington’s outlook on the Middle East. A Gaza cease-fire was implemented, which, despite continuing violence, helped end two years of brutal warfare. Hamas was hollowed out as a military organization capable of threatening Israel. Iran’s “axis of resistance” was shattered, and its ballistic missile and nuclear program was left reeling from 12 days of Israeli and U.S. bombing. Hezbollah was decapitated, leaving Israel’s northern border quieter than it had been in years. And in the most extraordinary change, a new regime in Syria opened closer relations with Washington, raising the prospect of a U.S.-brokered Israeli-Syrian security accord.

As 2025 draws to a close, however, these promising developments—which the Trump administration has cast in transformative terms—have collided with the harsh realities of regional politics and the recalcitrance of a variety of Middle Eastern players. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are down but not out. Israel continues to use its military power to preempt and prevent hostile activity in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, occupying real estate in all three areas. The West Bank simmers as Israel continues its de facto annexationist policies.

And U.S. President Donald Trump, whose focus on Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran helped create opportunities, can easily lose interest. Seemingly satisfied that he has added the Middle East to the list of conflicts that he claims to have solved, his penchant is to move on to other issues, such as Russia and Ukraine. The recent meeting between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, their sixth this year, seemed to suggest that the president—who is uniquely positioned to press the Israeli prime minister—chose to manage their differences rather than exploit them. Trump praised Netanyahu on the implementation of the Gaza plan and sided with him on Iran. The Trump administration did raise concerns about Israeli policies in the West Bank and pressed Israel to........

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