There’s No Precedent for Ukraine’s Proposed Peace Deal
The difficult decision that Ukraine’s government now faces is between enduring continued bombing by Russia and relinquishing sovereign land to Russia that is a part of its own cultural identity.
There are indications that Ukraine may consider ceding territory currently under Russian control if it received ironclad security guarantees in the event of a renewed Russian attack. But Ukraine is still trying to hold onto the part of the Donbas region that it has painstakingly fortified—or, at least, it is trying to avoid recognizing it as Russian and giving it up altogether.
The difficult decision that Ukraine’s government now faces is between enduring continued bombing by Russia and relinquishing sovereign land to Russia that is a part of its own cultural identity.
There are indications that Ukraine may consider ceding territory currently under Russian control if it received ironclad security guarantees in the event of a renewed Russian attack. But Ukraine is still trying to hold onto the part of the Donbas region that it has painstakingly fortified—or, at least, it is trying to avoid recognizing it as Russian and giving it up altogether.
Ukraine still holds between 10 to 15 percent of Donbas, in the Donetsk region, which sits atop coal deposits and is home to heavy engineering factories. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made gaining control over this last swath of the Donbas to be a condition of peace talks; so far, two different proposals have been suggested. One calls for the territory to be turned into a demilitarized zone (DMZ), and the other calls for a demilitarized and free economic zone (FEZ). Both would function as a buffer between Ukrainian-controlled and Russian-controlled land.
Scant details have been shared, however, on what these arrangements could look like, who would govern the zone, who would monitor violations, and who would stand to benefit economically. “These ideas seem to come out of a proposal written by [White House envoy Steve] Witkoff, but they don’t provide any technical details. DMZs are a technically complex proposal, where much hinges on the details,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow with Carnegie........





















Toi Staff
Sabine Sterk
Penny S. Tee
Gideon Levy
Waka Ikeda
Grant Arthur Gochin
Daniel Orenstein