A number of you have asked me for a simple overview of where things stand in the race to control Congress, so here’s some information you may find useful. It suggests where we need to focus our energies over the next four and a half months. 

1. What’s needed for control of each chamber

In the Senate now: 53 Republicans – 47 Democrats (or independents who caucus with Dems). Democrats need to gain a net 4 seats to take control of the Senate.

In the House now: 219 Republicans (or independents who caucus with GOP) – 212 Democrats. There are four vacancies (one in a largely Republican district, three in largely Democratic districts). Assuming that none of the current vacancies flip party control in special elections before November, Democrats need to gain a net 3 seats to take control of the House.

2. Vulnerable incumbent Republicans

Senate Republicans in competitive reelection races who are considered vulnerable

Maine: Republican Senator Susan Collins is being challenged by Democratic oysterman Graham Platner.

Ohio: Republican Senator Jon Husted is being challenged by former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.

Alaska: Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is being challenged by former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola (and potentially another candidate named Dan Sullivan).

Nebraska: Pete Ricketts is being challenged by independent populist Dan Osborn (who came close to defeating Nebraska’s other GOP senator in 2024). House Republicans in competitive reelection races who are considered........

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