By Jake Scott

As the eyes of the world watch negotiations over Kiev’s future, and the “special military operation” that was intended to last ten days nears the end of its fourth year, Russia is carefully deepening its economic ties outside of the West’s sphere of influence.

In this sense, the deal signed between the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Indonesia—Southeast Asia’s largest economy, and the world’s 17th largest ($1.4 trillion)—on December 22nd is emblematic of an ongoing structural realignment pursued by Russia in the last year. Reached after two years of negotiations, the EAEU–Indonesia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) suits each nation’s economic interests well: Indonesia’s main exports are palm oil, coconut oil, coffee, and cocoa—products either heavily sanctioned by the West, or strictly regulated (like palm oil); while exports from the EAEU are coal, potassium fertilizer, wheat, and ferro-alloys—commodities necessary to support a still mostly agrarian economy.

But the FTA matters even more so because of what it signals: an attempt by Russia to turn away permanently from Europe and the West as its main trading partners.

European nations have relied on a steady supply of Russian gas for their energy, allowing the European Union quietly to outsource its energy demands and offset the requirements of a “net-zero” economy. Given the war in Ukraine, however, diplomatic pressure has forced the bloc’s hand to 

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