Europe is entering a new political phase in which the far right can no longer be treated simply as a protest force operating outside the mainstream. Recent elections in Germany have demonstrated how rapidly nationalist and anti-immigration parties can expand their electoral base, while mainstream political parties struggle to respond to voters’ concerns over migration, economic pressures, security and cultural identity.

The clearest warning has come from Germany. In the September 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 43.8 percent of the vote, securing 39 of the state parliament’s 83 seats. The party therefore fell three seats short of an outright majority, but its result was nevertheless its strongest showing in any German state election. The CDU, associated with Chancellor Friedrich Merz, fell to 17.2 percent.

The message became even more significant on September 20. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD again emerged as the largest party, winning 38.2 percent according to the preliminary result, while the SPD received 35.5 percent. The CDU suffered an extraordinary setback, falling below the five-percent threshold and losing representation in the state parliament.

These results do not mean that the AfD automatically controls government. In Saxony-Anhalt, it lacks a majority, and other major parties have ruled out coalition cooperation. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the SPD remains capable of forming a government without the AfD. Yet the political significance of the results lies elsewhere: a party that was once regarded primarily as a fringe force is now winning elections outright in German states.

That development exposes a deeper crisis for Europe’s traditional political centre.

The weakening of the political centre

The rise of the far right cannot be explained by immigration alone. Voters also respond to economic conditions, housing costs, energy prices, dissatisfaction with government performance, distrust of established parties and perceptions that political institutions are failing to address everyday problems.

Germany provides a particularly striking example. The CDU’s collapse in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania came alongside the AfD’s surge, while Merz’s federal government has faced pressure over economic reforms and the cost of living. Reuters reported that the recent state-election results have intensified........

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